Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models

-0.03 -0.01    0.01    0.03    0.05 -0.08 -0.04 0.00   0.04   0.08     -0.30 -0.22 -0.14 -0.06 0.02 0.10 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.10     -0.02      0.06 0.10 0.14

US-Exports

US-Imports

Figure 1: Linear (dashed) and semiparametric estimates (solid) of y_tk = E[y_tk∣v_tk] for US
exports and imports in selected sectors. 95% confidence intervals for the semiparametric
estimates (wide dashes) and a horizontal line indicating E[ytk|vtk] = 0 are also shown. R_p²
is the partial degree of explantation, and θ is the slope estimate from the linear regression
(11) (t-ratios in parentheses).