Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models






Figure 2: Linear (dashed) and semiparametric estimates (solid) of ytk = E[ytk∣vtk] obtained
when analyzing exports or imports in sector 7 for selected economies. 95% confidence
intervals for the semiparametric estimates (wide dashes) and a horizontal line indicating
E [ytk |vtk] = 0 are also shown. Rp2 is the partial degree of explantation, and θ is the slope
estimate from the linear regression (11) (t-ratios in parentheses).




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