Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models



Table II: Relative size of sectoral trade flows

sec

_____0

1

2

_____3

____4

______5

_____6

_____7

_____8

____9

cover

Exports

AT

3.39

0.65

3.89

1.16

0.07

9.32

27.88

39.83

13.67

0.14

74.55

BE

9.02

0.82

2.31

3.03

0.42

17.54

26.58

27.92

8.77

3.59

81.35

CA

6.30

0.55

11.26

9.89

0.26

5.64

15.90

39.20

5.37

5.63

90.67

FI

2.47

0.33

8.53

2.42

0.08

6.32

37.36

35.62

6.30

0.56

65.60

FR

10.83

3.04

2.35

2.48

0.24

14.70

15.95

40.23

9.97

0.21

75.01

GE

4.15

0.68

1.77

1.14

0.26

13.34

15.96

49.66

10.24

2.80

72.12

GC

18.27

5.93

6.56

8.26

4.67

5.01

20.38

7.61

21.54

1.77

60.03

IT

5.23

1.25

0.96

1.44

0.41

7.85

21.90

37.49

22.58

0.89

84.47

IR

15.09

1.78

2.00

0.44

0.09

21.81

4.74

34.02

14.60

5.43

73.32

JP

0.41

0.10

0.67

0.53

0.02

6.55

11.00

70.22

8.27

2.24

46.12

NL

16.08

2.43

5.54

7.71

0.86

16.59

12.73

27.69

10.07

0.31

81.35

NO

8.00

0.07

2.60

51.97

0.25

6.30

15.45

12.10

3.15

0.10

82.70

SW

1.94

0.32

7.18

2.63

0.15

9.17

23.41

46.56

8.45

0.19

73.34

UK

4.37

2.67

1.64

6.38

0.13

13.54

14.07

43.43

12.61

1.16

74.77

US____

6.93

1.36

5.29

1.90

0.35

10.31

8.87

49.30

11.47

4.23

62.87

Imports

AT

5.23

0.41

4.13

4.91

0.19

10.51

18.68

37.68

17.87

0.40

79.78

CA

5.09

0.47

3.23

4.03

0.14

8.06

12.78

51.38

11.63

3.19

85.45

FI

5.51

0.66

6.95

10.34

0.18

12.14

14.18

37.90

10.98

1.17

71.07

FR

8.83

1.20

3.35

7.94

0.38

12.21

15.92

35.69

14.19

0.28

77.60

GE

8.09

1.00

4.20

7.39

0.29

8.91

15.72

34.42

15.39

4.58

71.43

GC

12.20

2.05

3.33

8.94

0.35

12.46

18.44

30.42

11.50

0.31

73.24

IT

9.74

1.01

7.21

8.11

0.79

12.86

16.34

29.51

9.56

4.88

80.14

IR

7.18

1.09

1.96

3.70

0.36

12.53

11.07

41.92

12.34

7.85

71.14

JP

13.68

1.47

9.39

17.71

0.24

7.13

11.63

22.76

13.99

2.01

40.03

NL

10.33

1.35

4.91

8.50

0.74

12.06

15.16

33.51

13.30

0.15

77.96

NO

5.50

0.67

7.19

3.68

0.36

9.45

17.68

39.19

16.13

0.16

74.72

SW

6.03

0.90

3.43

7.89

0.26

10.99

15.78

40.55

14.04

0.14

78.39

UK

7.98

1.55

3.53

3.93

0.36

9.92

16.02

41.59

14.30

0.83

77.73

US

3.75

0.82

2.66

8.83

0.19

5.46

11.71

45.93

17.07

3.57

62.85

Notes: Own computations based on data from OECD, Monthly Statistic of International
Trade. Average percentage shares over the period 1993:01 to 1998:01. ’cover’ is the percent-
age share of total aggregate exports (imports) with the rest of the world that is captured by
the set of partner countries considered.



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