Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models



SFB 649 Discussion Paper Series 2007

For a complete list of Discussion Papers published by the SFB 649,
please visit
http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de.

001 "Trade Liberalisation, Process and Product Innovation, and Relative Skill
Demand" by Sebastian Braun, January 2007.

002 "Robust Risk Management. Accounting for Nonstationarity and Heavy
Tails" by Ying Chen and Vladimir Spokoiny, January 2007.

003 "Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a
DsGe Model." by Harald Uhlig, January 2007.

004 "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets" by Enzo Weber,
January 2007.

005 "Quantile Sieve Estimates For Time Series" by Jürgen Franke, Jean-
Pierre Stockis and Joseph Tadjuidje, February 2007.

006 "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopolistic Competition, Union
Power, and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s" by Monique Ebell
and Albrecht Ritschl, February 2007.

007 "Rules, Discretion or Reputation? Monetary Policies and the Efficiency of
Financial Markets in Germany, 14th to 16th Centuries" by Oliver
Volckart, February 2007.

008 "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence, and Labour Market Dynamics in
Germany" by Ronald Bachmann and Michael C. Burda, February 2007.

009 "Union Wage Compression in a Right-to-Manage Model" by Thorsten
Vogel, February 2007.

010 "On σ-additive robust representation of convex risk measures for
unbounded financial positions in the presence of uncertainty about the
market model" by Volker Kratschmer, March 2007.

011 "Media Coverage and Macroeconomic Information Processing" by
Alexandra Niessen, March 2007.

012 "Are Correlations Constant Over Time? Application of the CC-TRIGt-test
to Return Series from Different Asset Classes." by Matthias Fischer,
March 2007.

013 "Uncertain Paternity, Mating Market Failure, and the Institution of
Marriage" by Dirk Bethmann and Michael Kvasnicka, March 2007.

014 "What Happened to the Transatlantic Capital Market Relations?" by Enzo
Weber, March 2007.

015 "Who Leads Financial Markets?" by Enzo Weber, April 2007.

016 "Fiscal Policy Rules in Practice" by Andreas Thams, April 2007.

017 "Empirical Pricing Kernels and Investor Preferences" by Kai Detlefsen,
Wolfgang Hardle and Rouslan Moro, April 2007.

018 "Simultaneous Causality in International Trade" by Enzo Weber, April
2007.

019 "Regional and Outward Economic Integration in South-East Asia" by
Enzo Weber, April 2007.

020 "Computational Statistics and Data Visualization" by Antony Unwin,
Chun-houh Chen and Wolfgang Hardle, April 2007.

021 "Ideology Without Ideologists" by Lydia Mechtenberg, April 2007.

022 "A Generalized ARFIMA Process with Markov-Switching Fractional
Differencing Parameter" by Wen-Jen Tsay and Wolfgang Hardle, April
2007.

SFB 649, Spandauer Straβe 1, D-10178 Berlin
http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de


This research was supported by the Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschaft through the SFB 649 "Economic Risk".



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