Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models



Table VI: Average ranks of one step ahead forecast errors (cont)

Exports                                                    Imports

Sec

AT

BE

CA

FI

FR

GE

GC

IR

IT

JP

NL

NO

SW

UK

US

agg

agg*

agg

agg*

8

LIN

2.73

2.24

2.74

2.95

3.03

2.35

2.65

2.72

2.80

2.93

2.86

2.74

2.58

2.76

2.92

2.73

2.80

2.74

2.75

THM

2.30

2.78

2.30

2.13

1.98

2.68

2.41

1.98

2.22

2.02

2.13

2.33

2.44

2.20

2.00

2.26

2.14

2.30

2.26

SPA

2.38

2.77

2.17

1.94

2.16

2.58

2.29

2.31

2.34

2.03

2.10

2.22

2.54

2.52

2.09

2.30

2.21

2.30

2.30

ZERO

2.59

2.21

2.79

2.98

2.83

2.38

2.66

3.00

2.64

3.01

2.92

2.71

2.43

2.52

2.98

2.71

2.84

2.66

2.69

9

TÎN

2.59

2.93

2.29

2.66

2.46

2.62

2.59

2.32

2.91

2.87

2.76

2.92

2.72

2.44

2.67

2.65

2.61

2.69

TT

THM

2.51

1.96

2.67

2.32

2.60

2.42

2.30

2.74

2.33

2.22

2.01

1.98

2.33

2.59

2.36

2.36

2.40

2.31

2.28

SPA

2.40

2.05

2.76

2.45

2.49

2.32

2.12

2.77

2.08

2.37

2.53

2.17

2.24

2.48

2.27

2.37

2.38

2.38

2.40

ZERO

2.50

3.06

2.27

2.58

2.45

2.64

2.99

2.17

2.67

2.55

2.70

2.94

2.71

2.48

2.70

2.63

2.62

2.63

2.60

agg

Tin

2.67

2.60

2.60

2.78

2.73

2.56

2.67

2.61

2.83

2.81

2.88

2.72

2.68

2.44

2.72

2.69

_

_

_

THM

2.29

2.44

2.40

2.29

2.28

2.45

2.36

2.33

2.26

2.12

2.08

2.25

2.26

2.58

2.32

2.31

_

_

_

SPA

2.38

2.46

2.44

2.26

2.34

2.40

2.35

2.46

2.20

2.26

2.24

2.28

2.27

2.57

2.29

2.35

_

_

_

ZERO

2.67

2.51

2.57

2.67

2.66

2.59

2.62

2.60

2.70

2.81

2.80

2.75

2.79

2.41

2.67

2.65

_

_

_

agg*

Tin

2.62

2.62

2.65

2.89

2.74

2.70

2.68

2.74

2.84

2.82

2.95

2.88

2.66

2.49

2.75

_

2.74

_

_

THM

2.32

2.43

2.32

2.22

2.29

2.27

2.32

2.15

2.26

2.04

1.98

2.11

2.25

2.55

2.27

_

2.25

_

_

SPA

2.44

2.41

2.36

2.17

2.32

2.27

2.41

2.38

2.24

2.18

2.17

2.16

2.25

2.51

2.24

_

2.30

_

_

ZERO

2.62

2.55

2.67

2.72

2.65

2.76

2.59

2.73

2.65

2.96

2.90

2.85

2.85

2.45

2.74

_

2.71

_

_

agg

Tin

2.71

_

2.79

2.77

2.72

2.58

2.72

2.56

2.70

2.71

2.76

2.75

2.76

2.68

2.75

_

_

2.71

_

THM

2.32

_

2.22

2.24

2.29

2.40

2.28

2.44

2.34

2.31

2.24

2.24

2.19

2.31

2.31

_

_

2.29

_

SPA

2.28

_

2.20

2.24

2.31

2.43

2.31

2.50

2.34

2.31

2.26

2.30

2.29

2.35

2.33

_

_

2.32

_

ZERO

2.68

_

2.79

2.75

2.68

2.60

2.70

2.49

2.62

2.66

2.74

2.71

2.75

2.67

2.60

_

_

2.67

_

agg*

Tin

2.74

_

2.80

2.90

2.67

2.62

2.67

2.63

2.71

2.85

2.84

2.84

2.72

2.72

2.83

_

_

_

TT

THM

2.34

_

2.22

2.15

2.34

2.38

2.34

2.44

2.34

2.16

2.19

2.15

2.26

2.24

2.21

_

_

_

2.27

SPA

2.24

_

2.17

2.13

2.35

2.36

2.38

2.39

2.25

2.18

2.18

2.24

2.37

2.34

2.34

_

_

_

2.28

ZERO

2.68

_

2.81

2.82

2.63

2.63

2.61

2.54

2.71

2.81

2.78

2.76

2.65

2.70

2.63

_

_

_

2.70

Notes: Average ranks of one step ahead forecast errors in absolute value obtained from four competing forecasting schemes (LIN,
THM, SPA, ZERO). Country and sector specific results are given for exports. agg and agg* denote unconditional aggregates and
aggregates obtained over states of unusually low and high FX uncertainty, respectively. Results for imports are given on aggregate
levels only. Bold entries indicate average ranks which are significantly smaller than 2.5.



More intriguing information

1. Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey.
2. Learning and Endogenous Business Cycles in a Standard Growth Model
3. International Financial Integration*
4. The name is absent
5. Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation
6. The name is absent
7. Are Japanese bureaucrats politically stronger than farmers?: The political economy of Japan's rice set-aside program
8. The name is absent
9. Weak and strong sustainability indicators, and regional environmental resources
10. The name is absent