Table VI: Average ranks of one step ahead forecast errors (cont)
Exports Imports
|
Sec |
AT |
BE |
CA |
FI |
FR |
GE |
GC |
IR |
IT |
JP |
NL |
NO |
SW |
UK |
US |
agg |
agg* |
agg |
agg* | |
|
8 |
LIN |
2.73 |
2.24 |
2.74 |
2.95 |
3.03 |
2.35 |
2.65 |
2.72 |
2.80 |
2.93 |
2.86 |
2.74 |
2.58 |
2.76 |
2.92 |
2.73 |
2.80 |
2.74 |
2.75 |
|
THM |
2.30 |
2.78 |
2.30 |
2.13 |
1.98 |
2.68 |
2.41 |
1.98 |
2.22 |
2.02 |
2.13 |
2.33 |
2.44 |
2.20 |
2.00 |
2.26 |
2.14 |
2.30 |
2.26 | |
|
SPA |
2.38 |
2.77 |
2.17 |
1.94 |
2.16 |
2.58 |
2.29 |
2.31 |
2.34 |
2.03 |
2.10 |
2.22 |
2.54 |
2.52 |
2.09 |
2.30 |
2.21 |
2.30 |
2.30 | |
|
ZERO |
2.59 |
2.21 |
2.79 |
2.98 |
2.83 |
2.38 |
2.66 |
3.00 |
2.64 |
3.01 |
2.92 |
2.71 |
2.43 |
2.52 |
2.98 |
2.71 |
2.84 |
2.66 |
2.69 | |
|
9 |
TÎN |
2.59 |
2.93 |
2.29 |
2.66 |
2.46 |
2.62 |
2.59 |
2.32 |
2.91 |
2.87 |
2.76 |
2.92 |
2.72 |
2.44 |
2.67 |
2.65 |
2.61 |
2.69 |
TT |
|
THM |
2.51 |
1.96 |
2.67 |
2.32 |
2.60 |
2.42 |
2.30 |
2.74 |
2.33 |
2.22 |
2.01 |
1.98 |
2.33 |
2.59 |
2.36 |
2.36 |
2.40 |
2.31 |
2.28 | |
|
SPA |
2.40 |
2.05 |
2.76 |
2.45 |
2.49 |
2.32 |
2.12 |
2.77 |
2.08 |
2.37 |
2.53 |
2.17 |
2.24 |
2.48 |
2.27 |
2.37 |
2.38 |
2.38 |
2.40 | |
|
ZERO |
2.50 |
3.06 |
2.27 |
2.58 |
2.45 |
2.64 |
2.99 |
2.17 |
2.67 |
2.55 |
2.70 |
2.94 |
2.71 |
2.48 |
2.70 |
2.63 |
2.62 |
2.63 |
2.60 | |
|
agg |
Tin |
2.67 |
2.60 |
2.60 |
2.78 |
2.73 |
2.56 |
2.67 |
2.61 |
2.83 |
2.81 |
2.88 |
2.72 |
2.68 |
2.44 |
2.72 |
2.69 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
|
THM |
2.29 |
2.44 |
2.40 |
2.29 |
2.28 |
2.45 |
2.36 |
2.33 |
2.26 |
2.12 |
2.08 |
2.25 |
2.26 |
2.58 |
2.32 |
2.31 |
_ |
_ |
_ | |
|
SPA |
2.38 |
2.46 |
2.44 |
2.26 |
2.34 |
2.40 |
2.35 |
2.46 |
2.20 |
2.26 |
2.24 |
2.28 |
2.27 |
2.57 |
2.29 |
2.35 |
_ |
_ |
_ | |
|
ZERO |
2.67 |
2.51 |
2.57 |
2.67 |
2.66 |
2.59 |
2.62 |
2.60 |
2.70 |
2.81 |
2.80 |
2.75 |
2.79 |
2.41 |
2.67 |
2.65 |
_ |
_ |
_ | |
|
agg* |
Tin |
2.62 |
2.62 |
2.65 |
2.89 |
2.74 |
2.70 |
2.68 |
2.74 |
2.84 |
2.82 |
2.95 |
2.88 |
2.66 |
2.49 |
2.75 |
_ |
2.74 |
_ |
_ |
|
THM |
2.32 |
2.43 |
2.32 |
2.22 |
2.29 |
2.27 |
2.32 |
2.15 |
2.26 |
2.04 |
1.98 |
2.11 |
2.25 |
2.55 |
2.27 |
_ |
2.25 |
_ |
_ | |
|
SPA |
2.44 |
2.41 |
2.36 |
2.17 |
2.32 |
2.27 |
2.41 |
2.38 |
2.24 |
2.18 |
2.17 |
2.16 |
2.25 |
2.51 |
2.24 |
_ |
2.30 |
_ |
_ | |
|
ZERO |
2.62 |
2.55 |
2.67 |
2.72 |
2.65 |
2.76 |
2.59 |
2.73 |
2.65 |
2.96 |
2.90 |
2.85 |
2.85 |
2.45 |
2.74 |
_ |
2.71 |
_ |
_ | |
|
agg |
Tin |
2.71 |
_ |
2.79 |
2.77 |
2.72 |
2.58 |
2.72 |
2.56 |
2.70 |
2.71 |
2.76 |
2.75 |
2.76 |
2.68 |
2.75 |
_ |
_ |
2.71 |
_ |
|
THM |
2.32 |
_ |
2.22 |
2.24 |
2.29 |
2.40 |
2.28 |
2.44 |
2.34 |
2.31 |
2.24 |
2.24 |
2.19 |
2.31 |
2.31 |
_ |
_ |
2.29 |
_ | |
|
SPA |
2.28 |
_ |
2.20 |
2.24 |
2.31 |
2.43 |
2.31 |
2.50 |
2.34 |
2.31 |
2.26 |
2.30 |
2.29 |
2.35 |
2.33 |
_ |
_ |
2.32 |
_ | |
|
ZERO |
2.68 |
_ |
2.79 |
2.75 |
2.68 |
2.60 |
2.70 |
2.49 |
2.62 |
2.66 |
2.74 |
2.71 |
2.75 |
2.67 |
2.60 |
_ |
_ |
2.67 |
_ | |
|
agg* |
Tin |
2.74 |
_ |
2.80 |
2.90 |
2.67 |
2.62 |
2.67 |
2.63 |
2.71 |
2.85 |
2.84 |
2.84 |
2.72 |
2.72 |
2.83 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
TT |
|
THM |
2.34 |
_ |
2.22 |
2.15 |
2.34 |
2.38 |
2.34 |
2.44 |
2.34 |
2.16 |
2.19 |
2.15 |
2.26 |
2.24 |
2.21 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
2.27 | |
|
SPA |
2.24 |
_ |
2.17 |
2.13 |
2.35 |
2.36 |
2.38 |
2.39 |
2.25 |
2.18 |
2.18 |
2.24 |
2.37 |
2.34 |
2.34 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
2.28 | |
|
ZERO |
2.68 |
_ |
2.81 |
2.82 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
2.61 |
2.54 |
2.71 |
2.81 |
2.78 |
2.76 |
2.65 |
2.70 |
2.63 |
_ |
_ |
_ |
2.70 | |
Notes: Average ranks of one step ahead forecast errors in absolute value obtained from four competing forecasting schemes (LIN,
THM, SPA, ZERO). Country and sector specific results are given for exports. agg and agg* denote unconditional aggregates and
aggregates obtained over states of unusually low and high FX uncertainty, respectively. Results for imports are given on aggregate
levels only. Bold entries indicate average ranks which are significantly smaller than 2.5.