Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models



Table VI: Average ranks of one step ahead forecast errors

Exports

Imports

Sec

AT

BE

CA

FI

FR

GE

GC

IR

IT

JP

NL

NO

SW

UK

US

agg

agg*

agg

agg*

0

LIN

2.56

2.66

2.65

2.81

2.63

2.52

2.77

^^275^

2.62

^215^^

2.88

3.08

2.92

2.26

2.56

2.70

2.75

2.78

2.80

THM

2.13

2.39

2.18

2.01

2.26

2.42

2.28

2.22

2.46

2.08

2.08

1.98

2.04

2.56

2.56

2.24

2.22

2.22

2.23

SPA

2.41

2.68

2.37

2.31

2.50

2.41

2.24

2.16

2.40

2.27

2.31

1.92

2.21

2.85

2.43

2.37

2.32

2.29

2.27

ZERO

2.91

2.27

2.80

2.88

2.60

2.64

2.71

2.88

2.52

2.80

2.73

3.03

2.83

2.33

2.45

2.69

2.71

2.70

2.69

I

^LIN

2.56

2.78

2.34

2.94

2.80

2.83

2.79

^^2^8^

2.98

^2J8^^

3.04

2.52

2.74

2.83

2.70

2.76

2.83

2.67

^^276^

THM

2.31

2.35

2.69

2.17

2.22

2.19

2.18

2.47

2.29

1.89

1.95

2.32

2.12

2.17

2.40

2.25

2.14

2.33

2.24

SPA

2.48

2.38

2.48

2.21

2.24

2.23

2.30

2.52

1.98

1.91

2.09

2.48

2.13

2.24

2.41

2.27

2.25

2.34

2.25

ZERO

2.66

2.48

2.48

2.68

2.74

2.76

2.74

2.43

2.74

3.22

2.92

2.68

3.02

2.76

2.49

2.72

2.79

2.66

2.75

2

LIN

2.58

2.42

2.78

2.94

2.64

2.39

3.00

2.76

2.98

2.92

2.85

2.71

2.48

2.49

2.65

2.70

2.76

2.73

2.74

THM

2.41

2.72

2.35

2.17

2.36

2.69

2.00

2.15

2.17

2.07

2.25

2.30

2.41

2.49

2.47

2.34

2.25

2.28

2.29

SPA

2.44

2.42

2.17

1.97

2.42

2.70

1.95

2.32

2.13

2.25

2.21

2.34

2.58

2.52

2.45

2.33

2.29

2.32

2.30

ZERO

2.57

2.44

2.70

2.92

2.58

2.22

3.05

2.77

2.71

2.77

2.69

2.65

2.53

2.49

2.43

2.63

2.69

2.66

2.67

3

LIN

2.83

2.57

2.32

2.96

2.82

2.38

3.16

2.14

2.73

2.46

2.67

2.45

2.74

2.62

2.74

2.63

2.74

2.83

2.80

THM

2.33

2.52

2.67

2.17

2.16

2.66

2.17

2.84

2.22

2.44

2.34

2.44

2.20

2.47

2.30

2.40

2.27

2.20

2.25

SPA

2.27

2.38

2.80

2.26

2.23

2.80

2.14

2.91

2.39

2.55

2.40

2.47

2.05

2.19

2.22

2.41

2.32

2.21

2.25

ZERO

2.57

2.52

2.22

2.61

2.79

2.16

2.54

2.11

2.67

2.55

2.59

2.64

3.01

2.73

2.74

2.56

2.67

2.77

2.69

4

LIN

2.73

2.76

2.39

2.67

2.70

2.50

2.63

2.77

2.86

^302^^

3.16

2.48

2.65

2.11

3.01

2.70

2.73

2.69

2.80

THM

2.07

2.27

2.48

2.57

2.43

2.31

2.38

2.17

2.26

1.96

1.73

2.68

2.43

3.04

1.99

2.32

2.26

2.34

2.24

SPA

2.32

2.36

2.81

2.34

2.23

2.22

2.58

2.38

1.99

2.18

2.02

2.64

2.13

2.77

2.16

2.34

2.30

2.32

2.25

ZERO

2.88

2.62

2.33

2.42

2.64

2.98

2.41

2.67

2.89

2.84

3.09

2.20

2.78

2.08

2.84

2.65

2.71

2.65

2.72

5

LIN

2.80

2.81

2.75

2.58

2.94

2.48

2.59

3.02

2.90

2.63

2.87

2.48

2.40

2.25

2.48

2.66

2.67

2.61

2.66

THM

2.19

2.23

2.29

2.43

2.05

2.45

2.53

1.98

2.08

2.28

2.10

2.42

2.46

2.81

2.58

2.32

2.36

2.44

2.41

SPA

2.48

2.33

2.32

2.39

2.07

2.43

2.41

2.18

2.22

2.33

2.49

2.38

2.58

2.70

2.42

2.38

2.38

2.36

2.30

ZERO

2.52

2.64

2.64

2.59

2.94

2.63

2.47

2.83

2.80

2.76

2.54

2.73

2.57

2.24

2.52

2.63

2.60

2.59

2.62

6

^^LIN

2.75

2.41

2.92

2.78

2.62

2.55

2.11

^^2752^

2.85

^2T4^

2.88

2.84

2.94

2.33

2.77

2.67

2.74

2.70

^^273^

THM

2.20

2.55

2.10

2.31

2.29

2.56

2.91

2.32

2.24

2.08

1.98

2.12

2.05

2.75

2.22

2.31

2.23

2.24

2.26

SPA

2.17

2.58

2.25

2.10

2.56

2.30

2.91

2.59

2.21

2.29

2.17

2.09

2.05

2.67

2.39

2.35

2.27

2.30

2.23

ZERO

2.88

2.47

2.73

2.81

2.52

2.59

2.07

2.57

2.70

2.89

2.97

2.95

2.96

2.25

2.62

2.67

2.76

2.76

2.77

7

^^LIN

2.52

2.38

2.79

2.49

2.62

2.97

2.44

"ɪss-

2.71

^2l68-

2.88

3.03

2.64

2.31

2.70

2.65

2.71

2.69

^^276^

THM

2.45

2.63

2.23

2.58

2.46

2.07

2.50

2.43

2.33

2.19

2.20

1.97

2.16

2.75

2.38

2.35

2.25

2.29

2.22

SPA

2.42

2.62

2.25

2.64

2.45

2.05

2.52

2.49

2.29

2.39

2.07

2.08

2.18

2.76

2.06

2.35

2.30

2.36

2.23

ZERO

2.61

2.38

2.73

2.28

2.47

2.92

2.55

2.54

2.67

2.73

2.86

2.92

3.02

2.18

2.87

2.65

2.74

2.66

2.79



More intriguing information

1. The name is absent
2. Wage mobility, Job mobility and Spatial mobility in the Portuguese economy
3. A Note on Productivity Change in European Co-operative Banks: The Luenberger Indicator Approach
4. The name is absent
5. Constrained School Choice
6. The name is absent
7. Evidence of coevolution in multi-objective evolutionary algorithms
8. Herman Melville and the Problem of Evil
9. The name is absent
10. Prizes and Patents: Using Market Signals to Provide Incentives for Innovations