Modelling the health related benefits of environmental policies - a CGE analysis for the eu countries with gem-e3



18

measures are taken to reduce CO2 emissions. This implies a relatively important growth
of CO
2 emissions by 2008-2012, the target period of the Kyoto Protocol. The last two
columns of Table 3 present the reduction targets in terms of CO
2 emissions in 2010 for
the two versions of the GEM-E3 model. The two model versions imply slightly
different emission targets for 2010 because the extended GEM-E3 model takes into
account the feedback effects of the growth in the emissions of local air pollutants (NO
x,
SO
2, VOC and PM) that is observed under the business-as-usual scenario. For most
countries and the EU in total this leads to a slightly smaller reduction target than in the
absence of the feedback effects. In five countries the feedback effects imply that CO
2
emissions should be reduced by more than in the standard GEM-E3 model.

Table 3:     Kyoto reduction targets for 2010

All GHG
(burden sharing
agreement)

CO2
(ECOFYS
study)

CO2
(ECOFYS
study)

CO2
(ECOFYS
study)

% change w.r.t.
1990

% change w.r.t.
1990

% change w.r.t.
2010;

GEM-E3
baseline
without
feedback

% change w.r.t.
2010;

GEM-E3
baseline with
feedback

Austria

-13.0

-18.2

-31.3

-31.6

Belgium

-7.5-

-6.9-

-19.0

-19.0

Germany

-21.0

-19.4

-54^

-5.7-

Denmark

-21.0

-23.2

-28.4

-28.5

Finland

48

-4~4~

-4T

France

68"

-9.8-

-93-

Greece

25.0

37.2

-5.5"

-5.6-

Ireland

1зГ

20.7

-25.4

-25.2

Italy

-65^

-6Γ

-27.4

-27.3

The Netherlands

-6.Ô-

4^3~

-15.1

-14.6

Portugal

27.0

49.6

-11.2

-10.8

Spain

150-

26.7

-23.2

-22.9

Sweden

4.0“

-7.Ô-

-7.0-

UK

-12.5

-9T

-0.9-

-L2~

EU

-8.0-

-4~9~

-12.7

-12.6



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