Fiscal Sustainability Across Government Tiers



XREAP2007-14

TABLES

Table 1. Fiscal rule, (1) and (6), general government.

US________________

Germany

1962-2000_______________

1971-2005_______________

1971-1990______________

1991-2005______________

(1)

(6)

(1)

(6)

(1)

(6)

(1)

(6)

ρ

0.06

0.05

0.01

0.14

0.01

0.21

0.14

0.15

(0.02)

(0.03)

(0.69)

(0.06)

(0.95)

(0.29)

(0.14)

(0.15)

α

-

0.14

-

-0.81

-

-0.12

-

-0.26

(0.12)

(0.06)

(0.27)

(0.74)

obs

38

-38

"35

^35

20

~20

15

∏5

R2

0.17

0.20_________

0.07________

0.13_________

0.01

0.08________

0.18

0.19________

1967

1991

1982

1976

-

-

-

-

AQ

(0.08)

(0.27)

(0.30)

(0.25)

AP

(0.03)

(0.21)

(0.29)

(0.17)

Bai

1966

1994

1983

1981

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

[-;-]____________

[-;-]

[1976;2000]

[1979;1983]

Notes: coefficients are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust OLS estimates; AQ and AP indicate
the p-values for the corrected Andrews Quandt and Andrews Ploberger break date for the fiscal rule; Bai is
the breaktest of Bai (1997), with its p-value and 33% confidence interval; for the specification for
Germany, a shift dummy and time trend is included since 1991 for the full sample estimates.

Table 2. Fiscal rules for government tiers, system estimates (3), US states, 1963-2000.

state___________

ρ_______

p-value_______

state___________

P_______

p-value_______

federal________

0.03__________

(0.13)

AK

0.27

(0.01)

MT

0.07

(0.00)

AL

0.02

(0.01)

NC

0.03

(0.00)

AR

0.05

(0.00)

ND

0.05

(0.00)

AZ

0.04

(0.00)

NE

0.08

(0.00)

CA

0.03

(0.02)

NH

0.04

(0.00)

CO

0.05

(0.00)

NJ

0.04

(0.00)

CT

0.01

(0.22)

NM

0.03

(0.10)

DC

0.05

(0.00)

NV

0.02

(0.09)

DE

0.07

(0.00)

NY

0.04

(0.01)

FL

0.05

(0.00)

OH

0.08

(0.00)

GA

0.03

(0.00)

OK

0.05

(0.00)

HI

0.05

(0.01)

OR

0.08

(0.00)

IA

0.04

(0.00)

PA

0.05

(0.00)

ID

0.07

(0.00)

RI

0.03

(0.04)

IL

0.03

(0.00)

SC

0.03

(0.00)

IN

0.03

(0.00)

SD

0.08

(0.00)

KS

0.04

(0.00)

TN

0.04

(0.00)

KY

0.08

(0.00)

TX

0.05

(0.00)

LA

0.04

(0.00)

UT

0.08

(0.00)

MA

0.01

(0.22)

VA

0.04

(0.00)

MD

0.06

(0.00)

VT

0.04

(0.01)

ME

0.05

(0.00)

WA

0.07

(0.00)

MI

0.04

(0.00)

WI

0.09

(0.00)

MN

0.06

(0.00)

WV

0.05

(0.00)

MO

0.06

(0.00)

WY_____

0.08__________

(0.00)_________

MS______

0.04__________

(0.00)_________

sum_______

2.71__________

(0.01)_________

Notes: p-values between parentheses.

21



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