Fiscal Sustainability Across Government Tiers



XREAP2007-14

Notes: p-values between parentheses, Lander names in bold are former West-German states; for the
specification for Germany, a shift dummy and time trend is included since 1991 for the full sample
estimates.

Table 5. Fiscal rule, (1) and (6), German federal government

federal government__________________________________________________________________

1971-2005____________________

1971-1990_______________

1991-2005_______________

(1)_____________

(6)_______________

(1)__________

(6)

(1)___________

(6)

P

-0.01

-0.01

-0.05

-0.04

0.03

0.05

(0.75)

(0.76)

(0.46)

(0.38)

(0.44)

(0.21)

α

0.59

0.30

0.31

(0.61)

(0.08)

(0.83)

obs

34

34

20

~1λ

~4

~~L4

R2

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.23

0.03

0.04

1975

1976

-

-

-

-

AQ

(0.23)

(0.29)

AP

(0.14)

(0.19)

Bai

1984

1979

(0.00)

(0.00)

[1979;1984]

[1977;1981]

Notes: heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust OLS estimates; AQ and AP indicate the
corrected Andrews Quandt and Andrews Ploberger break date for the fiscal rule; the
breaktest of Bai is Bai (1997), with the 33% confidence interval; for the specification for
Germany, a shift dummy and time trend is included since 1991 for the full sample estimates.

Table 6. Fiscal rule, panel fixed effects, panel of German Lander

all Lander________

old Lander________________________

new Lander____

1970-2005

1970-1990

1991-2005

1991-2005

(1)______

(6)_______

(1)_____

(6)

(1)______

(6)

(1)_____

(6)

P

0.01

-0.03

-0.01

0.05

-0.05

-0.05

0.08

-0.02

(0.58)

(0.04)

(0.24)

(0.68)

(0.03)

(0.02)

(0.03)

(0.40)

α

-0.09

0.08

0.01

-0.16

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.57)

(0.00)

obs

439

439

220

220

154

154

78

78

R2 within

0.01

0.13

0.02

0.11

0.14

0.13

0.24

0.55

R2 between

0.61

0.88

0.95

0.09

0.43

0.42

0.93

0.11

R2 overall

0.11

0.30

0.35

0.03

0.34

0.34

0.01

0.35

Hausman

150.85

41.05

62.27

70.93

358.51

340.05

24.51

10.93

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

(0.00)

Notes: p-values between parentheses; for the specification for Germany, a shift dummy and
time trend is included since 1991 for the full sample estimates.

23



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