Fiscal Sustainability Across Government Tiers



XREAP2007-14

Table 3. Fiscal rule, (1) and (6): US, 1962-2000.

federal government

panel       of      state

governments___________

(1)_______

(6)

(1)___________

(6)___________

P

0.08

0.08

0.10

0.08

(0.01)

(0.01)

(0.00)

(0.00)

α

0.08

-0.06

(0.35)

(0.00)

obs

^38

38

1887

1887

R2

0.19

0.20

0.08

0.10

R2 within

0.05

0.07

R2 between

0.21

0.19

R2 overall

0.08

0.10

Hausmann

1059.31

1144.58

(0.00)

(0.00)

1967

1992

-

-

AQ

(0.08)

(0.36)

AP

(0.03)

(0.18)

Bai

1966

1994

(0.00)

(0.00)

[-;-]

[-;-]

Notes: heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust OLS
estimates; AQ and AP indicate the corrected Andrews Quandt
and Andrews Ploberger break date for the fiscal rule; the
breaktest of Bai is Bai (1997), with the 33% confidence
interval.

Table 4. Fiscal rules for government tiers, system estimates (3), German Lander, 1970-2005.

all

1970-2

Lander
005

old

1970-2

Lander
005

old
1970-1

Lander

990

old

1991-2

Lander

>005

new

1991-2

Lander
.005

P__

p-value

P__

p-value

P__

p-value

P__

p-value

P__

p-value

federal

-0.01

(0.36)

-0.01

(0.38)

-0.06

(0.06)

0.00

(0.88)

0.00

(0.89)

BE

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.01)

0.00

(0.04)

0.00

(0.04)

BW

0.00

(0.35)

0.00

(0.34)

0.00

(0.67)

0.00

(0.24)

BY

0.00

(0.03)

0.00

(0.03)

0.00

(0.86)

0.00

(0.49)

HB

0.00

(0.01)

0.00

(0.01)

0.00

(0.10)

0.00

(0.87)

HE

0.00

(0.06)

0.00

(0.06)

0.00

(0.24)

0.00

(0.14)

HH

0.00

(0.71)

0.00

(0.71)

0.00

(0.91)

0.00

(0.23)

NI

0.00

(0.75)

0.00

(0.76)

0.00

(0.18)

0.00

(0.01)

NW

0.00

(0.26)

0.00

(0.26)

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

RP

0.00

(0.70)

0.00

(0.71)

0.00

(0.76)

0.00

(0.00)

SH

0.00

(0.08)

0.00

(0.08)

0.00

(0.46)

0.00

(0.10)

SL

0.00

(0.19)

0.00

(0.19)

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.04)

BB

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

MV

0.00

(0.20)

0.00

(0.12)

SN

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

ST

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

TH

0.00

(0.00)

0.00

(0.00)

sum

0.01

(0.21)

0.00

(0.29)

0.00

(0.38)

0.00

(0.20)

0.01

(0.03)

22



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