Cook County, and added to the substan-
tial migration gain in the outer suburbs.
An examination of net migration and
natural increase by racial/ethnic group
reveals the complex dynamics of demo-
graphic change in the metropolitan
region. In the City of Chicago, the non-
Hispanic white population experienced
both net out-migration (-120,000) and
natural decrease (-13,000) between
1990 and 2000 (figure 4). Natural de-
crease occurred in the white population
because deaths exceeded births. There
was also significant black net out-migra-
tion (-132,000) from the city during
the 1990s, though it was largely offset
by natural increase (129,000). In con-
trast, Hispanics experienced both sub-
stantial natural increase (156,000) and
significant net migration gains (65,000).
However, it is important to note that
more than two-thirds of Hispanic growth
in the city was a function of natural in-
crease. This refutes a commonly held
notion that Hispanic population growth
in the city is mostly due to immigration.
The primarily Asian population of the
other category also enjoyed both natural
increase and net migration in the 1990s.
The white population recorded a net
outflow of 208,000 from suburban Cook
County between 1990 and 2000. Modest
natural increase only partially offset
this loss. Most of the black population
gain in suburban Cook County result-
ed from migration, though there was
also significant natural increase. The two
combined to produce a 50% increase
in the number of black residents in
suburban Cook County. Hispanics also
enjoyed significant natural increase and
substantial in-migration in suburban
Cook County, as did the other category.
Part of the reason for the large percent-
age gains in the black and Hispanic
populations in the suburbs is that both
groups were growing from a relatively
small base in 1990. However, even if
measured in absolute rather than per-
centage terms, the growth of the black
and Hispanic populations in the sub-
urbs has been substantial. By 2000, blacks
represented 13.8% of the population
of suburban Cook County and 5.6% in
the outer suburbs. Hispanics were 13%
of the suburban Cook County popula-
tion and 11.8% in the outer suburbs.
4. Natural increase and net migration, 1990-2000
population change
300,000 --------
Chicago Suburban Remaining
City Cook CMSA (IL)
source: Data from Illinois Department of Public Health; U.S. Census Bureau;
and National Center for Health Statistics.
In the outer suburbs, significant natu-
ral increase combined with substantial
net migration gains to produce a large
population gain for each of the four
groups. The outer suburbs are the only
part of the metropolitan area that had
a net inflow of whites. Population gains
were greatest among Hispanics, who
grew 136% between 1990 and 2000. Most
of this growth was from net migration.
Migration gains were also substantial
for the largely Asian other category.
Understanding a natural decrease
Although it does occur occasionally,
natural decrease has been uncommon
in metropolitan areas. Yet, deaths ex-
ceeded births in the City
of Chicago’s white popula-
tion segment in every year
from 1990 to 1999. This
trend likely developed in
the 1980s and is known to
have occurred in some
parts of the city during the
1970s. Most natural de-
crease in the U.S. results
from age structure shifts
that leave an area with rel-
atively few adults of child-
bearing age and many older
adults with high mortality
risk. The situation is rather
more complex in the City
of Chicago. Whites do rep-
resent a disproportionate
share of the city’s older population, but
they also constitute a significant share
of the population of childbearing age.
Thus, while it is understandable that
deaths in the white group represent
49% of the city total, it is less clear why
whites produce only 21% of city births.
Nor is white natural decrease restricted
to the city. In 1999, deaths among the
white population in suburban Cook
County exceeded births—probably for
the first time in history. In 1998-99, 19
other Cook County cities experienced
overall natural decrease.
Social and political implications
of demographic change
Two interesting findings illustrate the
implications of demographic change
for the area. The relatively small num-
ber of births among whites in the city
has significant implications for efforts
by the school system to foster diversity.
Indeed, the problem is exacerbated by
the age-specific migration patterns of
young white adults in the region. Few-
er than 53% of the white babies born
in the city remain as five to nine year
olds. The only plausible explanation
for a decline of this magnitude is that
families with young children leave the
city in significant numbers during their
children’s preschool years. Although
the out-migration of families with chil-
dren from the city is a well-known
phenomenon, the magnitude of the
Michael H. Moskow, President; William C. Hunter,
Senior Vice President and Director of Research; Douglas
Evanoff, Vice President, financial studies; Charles
Evans, Vice President, macroeconomic policy research;
Daniel Sullivan, Vice President, microeconomic policy
research; William Testa, Vice President, regional
programs and Economics Editor; Helen O’D. Koshy,
Editor; Kathryn Moran, Associate Editor.
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