The changing face of Chicago: demographic trends in the 1990s

loss among non-Hispanic whites is sur-
prising. The data also show a smaller,
but still significant loss of black children
(74% remaining). In contrast, children
of Hispanics (94% remaining) and
the largely Asian other group (91%
remaining) are much more likely to
begin school in the city.

The demographic changes occurring
in the region also have political impli-
cations. For example, the fact that the
older population in Chicago is dispro-
portionately white means that although
they represent only 32% of the popu-
lation, whites constitute 45% of regis-
tered voters. Blacks are also slightly
over-represented among registered
voters (37% of population and 39% of
registered voters). In contrast, both
Hispanics (26% of population and 13%
of registered voters) and the largely

Asian other category (6% of population
and 3% of registered voters) constitute
much larger proportions of population
than of those registered to vote. The
under-representation of Hispanics and
Asians (other) underscores the linkage
between demography and voting as
both of these groups have lower citizen-
ship rates; the Hispanic population
also is considerably younger than any
of the other groups.

In conclusion, the significant popula-
tion gains in each sub-area of the
Chicago metropolitan region between
1990 and 2000 represent a sharp con-
trast to the minimal gains in the sub-
urbs and the population decline in the
city during the 1980s. These recent
population gains resulted from a com-
plex interplay of fertility, mortality, do-
mestic migration, and immigration.

Most of the region’s growth was fueled
by immigration and natural increase,
with Hispanics contributing dispropor-
tionately to both. The Chicago area
continued to experience significant
net domestic out-migration, especially
from the city and suburban Cook Coun-
ty. Most of this net migration loss oc-
curred among non-Hispanic whites.

Predicting Chicago’s demographic fu-
ture is perilous, as the roller coaster of
demographic change over the past sev-
eral decades clearly testifies. Migration
is the most volatile element in the de-
mographic equation, affected as it is
by a myriad of economic, social, and
political forces that are, in turn, influ-
enced by a variety of local, national,
and international factors.

¹ This article is drawn from a lecture giv-
en by the author at the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago on October 24, 2001.

² For purposes of this study, the Chicago
region is defined as the Illinois portion
of the Chicago, Kenosha, and Gary con-
solidated metropolitan statistical area.
This includes Cook, DeKalb, DuPage,
Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake,
McHenry, and Will Counties. It excludes
Kenosha County in Wisconsin and Lake
and Porter Counties in Indiana. Tim

Weddle of Loyola University-Chicago
produced the graphics and contributed
to the data analysis. Mark Flotow of the
Illinois Department of Public Health
provided timely and detailed birth and
death data for Cook County. Steve
Murdock of Texas A&M University pro-
vided additional data.

³ Data were obtained from the 1950 to 2000
Censuses and the 1990 Modified Age-
Race-Sex file (MARS) prepared by the
U.S. Census Bureau. Additional data
come from the 1990-99 Federal State
Cooperative Population Estimates Series
(FSCPE). Detailed race-based birth and
death data were obtained from the

National Center for Health Statistics
and the Illinois Department of Public
Health. It was necessary to make a num-
ber of estimates to adjust datasets to be
consistent for period covered and data
type. Although these estimates are sub-
ject to minor revision, the overall find-
ings will not change significantly. A de-
tailed summary of the methods used is
available from the author.

⁴ W. H. Frey and R. C. DeVol, 2000,
“America’s demography of the new cen-
tury,” Milken Institute, Santa Monica,
CA, policy brief, No. 9.

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