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Overall, across NSW, the proportion of the winter cropping area sown to cereals has been
declining at 0.27% per year over the period 1993 to 2003 (Table 6). The rate of decline in
cereals has been greatest in the north-west (0.65% per year) and the south-east (0.24%), with
the other two regions declining more slowly (0.1% per year). Overall in NSW the share of
broadleaf crops has been increasing at a rate of 0.27% of the total area of winter crops per
year.
On the basis that those same trends will continue in the future, the projected levels for 2010
and 2020 were calculated (Table 6). At the state level, the overall percentage of cereals in
winter cropping of 86% in 2000 is projected to decline to 83% in 2010 and 78% in 2020 if the
recent trends continue. Thus, the overall percentage of broadleaf crops (14% in 2000) is
projected to increase to 17% in 2010 and 22% in 2020, slightly lower than the target of 25%.
The levels are projected to be 20% in the south and 25% in the north by 2020. The north-east
(14%) and the south-west (10%) regions are both not projected to have reached the target
25% by 2020, while the north-west (34%) and the south-east (28%) are projected to meet the
target comfortably, if recent trends were to continue.
These results indicate that if the trends of the past decade can be continued, the role of
broadleaf crops will increase further in the next 20 years, and can reach the target of 25% of
the area sown to field crops in NSW by shortly after 2020. However, it is unclear the extent to
which such recent trends can be continued. The areas where the largest gains in increasing the
role of broadleaf crops can be made will need to be targeted carefully, although it is likely that
the regions with lower proportions of broadleaf crops in recent years (that is, the south-west
and the north-east) are likely to be the most difficult to increase the rate of change. Progress
towards meeting these targets will be reviewed annually, as part of the on-going monitoring
process to identify whether the target levels are likely to be achieved.
To achieve the desired target levels, it will be necessary to:
(a) develop varieties with improved yield potential, greater resistance to key diseases and
increased harvestability (such as shatter tolerance and high pod height);
(b) develop crops that are preferred by human consumption markets and/or have a focus on
quality to increase the prices received by farmers;
(c) develop specific research and extension programs to address those crops and regions
where the trends indicate that the percentages of broadleaf crops are likely to be lowest.
These developments will improve the relative profitability of broadleaf crops in the winter
cropping rotation and, if they can be achieved, are likely to provide increased incentives for
farmers to include more of these crops in their rotations.
The efforts of scientists within the NSW Department of Primary Industries, the pulse and
oilseeds industries and the farming communities more generally are being directed to
achieving those objectives so that the targets can be met.