THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TOBACCO

Chart 11 - STAGES

• You can see here that the consumption of cigarettes in the U.S. has been declining for much
of the last 20 years. On the average, cigarette use has been trending about 3 percent lower
each year.

• However, up until about 4 years ago, U.S. cigarette exports were growing at a fairly
impressive rate which helped keep cigarette output relatively stable. Then in 1997, cigarette
exports began its current downward trend, which coupled with lower domestic consumption
pushed cigarette output lower.

• The trends seen for U.S. domestic cigarette use are likely to continue, and although cigarette
exports have stabilized somewhat, we’re not likely to see the growth we once saw in U.S.
cigarette trade.

Brazil

Chart 12 - STAGES

• Looking at Brazil’s leaf output and trade over the last 40 years, we see a fairly impressive
growth rate for production and exports.

Chart 13

• For 2001, we show that total output declined 8 percent from 2000 to about 540,000 tons.
Area planted was higher, but normal yields kept production below 2000.

Chart 14

• Looking at Brazil’s flue-cured sector, output in 2001 totaled about 410,000 tons, that’s down
6 percent from 2000 on about 4 percent greater acreage.

• Despite the lower production for 2001, Brazil’s flue-cured exports increased about 4 percent
and totaled about 285,000 tons. One factor that helped Brazilian trade is the devaluation of
the Real that essentially made Brazilian leaf more competitive on international markets.

Zimbabwe

Chart 15 - STAGES

• Looking at Zimbabwe over the last 40 years, we can see a definite upward trend in
production and trade. Although some tailing off has occurred recently.

• For 2001, planted area totaled about 78,000 hectares, that’s about 15,000 less than in 2000.

With lower planted area, Zimbabwe’s leaf output in 2001 totaled about 200,000 tons, that’s
down from 245,000 tons in 2000.

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