THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TOBACCO



Malawi

Chart 20 - STAGES

I want to touch briefly on Malawi.

You can see here that Malawi is a significant producer and exporter of leaf tobacco,
particularly burley, and has experienced significant growth in both production and exports.

Chart 21

Our estimates show that Malawi’s burley production in 2001 totaled about 120,000 tons,
that’s down from about 140,000 tons in 2000.

The strength of the Kwacha has pushed exports down somewhat, so we’re showing exports at
about 90,000 tons in 2001. That’s down from about 96,000 tons in 2000.

World Imports

Chart 22 - STAGES

Now that I’ve touched on the supply side and have given you a look at who the major
producers and traders are for flue and burley, I’d like to touch on the demand side and look at
trends we’re seeing with respect to tobacco use worldwide.

The world’s top leaf importing nations are currently the European Union, Russia, the United
States, Japan, Egypt and Turkey.

Of these, Russia and Turkey have shown considerable growth in imports over this period,
while imports by the EU have remained relatively level, although Germany has shown some
growth over the last 10 years.

Looking at the U.S., we saw considerable leaf import growth until about 1993, and then
changes occurred in domestic use and in our import policies which altered import flows.
Since that period, U.S. imports have remained relatively stable.

Chart 23 - STAGES

Represented here are the import markets that have shown the most significant increase in leaf
imports over the last ten years. Turkey in particular has shown the most visible increase,
while you can see China has shown a substantial increase particularly over the last two years.

Global Consumption

Chart 24

I’d like to look at cigarette consumption trends worldwide which obviously have a direct
impact on the level of imports we’re seeing.



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