THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK FOR U.S. TOBACCO



We can see that world population continues to grow at an average rate of about 1.5 percent
per year. When projecting this out we see that world population could reach almost 7 billion
by the year 2010.

Now, looking at per capita consumption of cigarettes worldwide, what we’ve been seeing is
per capita consumption falling at about the same rate as population is rising

Economic factors and variables related to global health initiatives are key factors that impact
per-capita use. And while it is likely per-capita consumption will fluctuate, I think it’s safe
to say that the trend will likely be for lower consumption as we continue to see initiatives
geared toward lower tobacco use.

Chart 25

What this means is that with a falling per capita consumption level, and despite an expected
continued rise in world population, world cigarette consumption will likely level off to about
5 trillion pieces yearly.

And what this means is that while gains will still be seen in leaf trade, exporters will find that
the increasingly competitive nature of the market will make it more difficult for them to
maintain market share.

Closing Remarks

Chart 26 - STAGES

I think I’m going to stop about there.

I’ve tried to provide you with this afternoon is an overview of the leaf industry worldwide by
identifying the major types being produced and traded. The trends seen on the supply side as
countries that continue to grow good quality tobacco at attractive prices are showing growth
in trade.

However, ever strengthening health initiatives worldwide are likely to continue pushing per
capita cigarette consumption lower. This means that the market place for leaf tobacco will
become more competitive as exporters vie for a share of what appears to be a shrinking
market for leaf tobacco.

Thank you very much.



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