The name is absent

TABLE 3. Variation in Farm Income and Prod-
uct Prices, Selected Periods, United States,
1955-78

Coefficient of variation^3
ltem                  1955-63       1964-71      1972-78

Index of prices received

All products

Crops

Cash crop receipts

Personal income received by
the farm population

Farm income

Farm income (incl. government
payments)

Nonfarm income

From all sources

^a The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation of
the series divided by the mean and expressed as a percent.

Source: Penn, J. B. “The Changing Farm Sector and Fu-
ture Public Policy: An Economic Perspective,”
Agricultural-Food Policy Reviews: Perspectives for the
1980’s, AFPR-4, ESS, USDA, 1981, p. 47.

Even with government payments included, con-
siderable variation remains. Only when nonfarm
income sources are included does the variability
tend to be dampened, although even then the
VariabiHty is found to persist at a rather high
level.

Thus, beyond their promise, expanded exports
also appear to contribute rather significantly to
the price and income variability problems of the
U.S. farm sector. Of course, the opportunity for
expanded export sales, with the possibility that
they will actually exceed expectations, makes
continued participation in world markets attrac-
tive. At issue, however, is whether and how well
the variability in export sales can be anticipated
and dealt with by farmers of the southern region.

SOUTHERN FARM INDUSTRY

An understanding of how export instab∏ity will
affect southern farms requires a perspective on
the structure of the farming industry in that re-
gion. Major crop commodities produced by
southern agriculture with export potential in-
clude cotton, peanuts, rice, soybeans, wheat,
and tobacco. There is also significant citrus and
livestock production, much of which is destined
for markets overseas. Also important is the
production of livestock for domestic con-
sumption—especially hogs and broilers—which
relies on feed supplies in competition with ⅛e
export market.

Growth rates for U.S. commodity exports of
interest to the southern region are reported in
Table 1. Similar rates of growth over the 1970s
for the production of selected commodities in the
southern region are presented in Table 4. As in-
dicated, rice and soybean production increased,
largely at the expense of cotton. Rice production
exhibited particular growth in the non-allotment
states of Arkansas and Mississippi. The growth
in rice and soybean production was generally
commensurate with the increase in U.S. exports.
Wheat production also reflects a proportionate
capturing of export share. Increases in peanut
production generally mirror the increase in world
oilseed demand of the early 1970s and the com-
petitive stimulus of the “additional” peanut sup-
port level of the 1977 Farm Act. The growth in
southern corn production was somewhat below
that exhibited by U.S. exports—not surprising,
given the historical feed deficit nature of the re-
gion.

Industry Structure

While agricultural production has increased,
the number of farms in all areas of the South has
declined since 1960 (Table 5). For the region as a
whole, the total of 1.74 million farms in 1969 de-
creased to 1.01 milHon in 1980. Throughout this
same period, however, the average size of farm

Source: Farm numbers index calculated from Agricultural
Statistics, 1980, 1972 and Statistical Bulletin No. 507, Crop
Reporting Board, USDA, January 1973. Cropland use index
calculated from Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector:
Production and Efficiency Statistics, 1979, ESS, USDA.

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