The name is absent

depend to a significant degree on their farm earn-
ings. Off-farm earnings are in some cases im-
portant, but the economic viability of these farms
is tied to their success in raising and selling ag-
ricultural commodities. In addition, these farms
typically do not have the equity position of larger
farms against which to borrow funds when
necessary.

Thus, while southern producers of soybeans,
wheat, peanuts, rice, and tobacco have expanded
their sales through export markets, they have
also become exposed to an increased variability
in cash receipts. Corn farmers have also been
affected by the expanded marketing oppor-
tunities, even though most corn is consumed on-
farm, or within the region as feed for livestock.
Variability inherent in the world feedgrains mar-
ket filters down to the regional level so that
southern producers are not insulated from its ef-
fects.

EXPORT PROSPECTS FOR THE EIGHTIES

Exports of interest to the southern region have
increased during the past decade. In some cases,
the effects of these increased exports have been
realized directly. For feedgrain producers and
those farmers raising livestock, the impacts have
been less direct, but nevertheless quite real. As-
sociated with the expansion of exports, more-
over, has been an added volatility in the overall
demand for agricultural commodities.

Of prospective interest to farmers in the South
are expectations for exports and their volatility
during the decade of the eighties. One such look
to the future has been completed by the Eco-
nomic Research Service (USDA). Despite near-
term problems, it was generally concluded in the
ERS study that the foreign demand for agricul-
tural commodities would continue to be strong,
although increasingly variable. Projections of
these U.S. crop exports are presented in Table
10.

For the 1981 through 1989 period, it is ex-
pected that the export demand for corn and rice
will grow at about 4 ½ percent per year. Exports
of wheat and soybeans are anticipated to in-
crease at around 2 percent each year. Cotton ex-
ports will expand rather slowly, perhaps at less
than 1 percent annually. The peanut index is
somewhat deceptive, given the poor crop pro-
duced during 1980/81. Exports Ofpeanuts should
increase around 5 percent each year, however.

While these increases in exports may not
match the growth of the 1970s, they do represent
substantial increases in production by U.S.
farmers. If southern producers do no better than
retain their share of the export total, it will mean
significant increases in output for the region.
How such production might be achieved is a mat-
ter for consideration. Additional land could be
brought into cultivation, although after the gains
of the 1970s, it is not entirely clear at what rate
this might or could occur. The use of irrigation
could be further expanded, but groundwater
supplies are potentially limiting. Alternatively,
more intensive use of fertilizer and pesticides
could occur, although relative factor (e.g.,
energy) prices will play a determining role. Or,
perhaps, there will be technological advances of
one sort or another that will permit greater out-
put from a given level of inputs.

Implicit, too, in export growth is the introduc-
tion of still further variability in cash receipts to
the farm sector. When coupled with domestic
yield-related fluctuations that might normally be
experienced, it gives rise to some potentially
wide swings in prices. Drawing again on the ERS
report on agricultural prospects for the 1980s, the
implications of a one-standard deviation change

TABLE 10. Indexes of Projected U.S. Crop Exports^a

^a Note that these are research projections and do not represent official USDA projections.

Source: Calculated from Problems and Prospects for U.S. Agriculture ERS, USDA, December 1981, p. 5.

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