ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS FOR APPLIED AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH



Table 6. Select statistics about the 80 to 99% confidence bands for the basis occurrences under the final normal
{FNHAR(4)} and non-normal {FNNHAR(4)} West Texas cotton basis models.

FNHAR(4) MODEL_______________FNNHAR(4) MODEL

%CI

TR#

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

80%

25.20

11

14

-6.483

0.697

7.180

21

27

-5.241

-0.456

4.785

81%

23.94

11

14

-6.566

0.779

7.345

19

24

-5.290

-0.370

4.920

82%

22.68

10

13

-6.652

0.865

7.516

19

22

-5.342

-0.278

5.064

83%

21.42

9

11

-6.741

0.954

7.695

19

21

-5.396

-0.181

5.215

84%

20.16

9

11

-6.835

1.048

7.883

18

20

-5.453

-0.076

5.377

85%

18.90

9

11

-6.934

1.146

8.081

17

20

-5.512

0.035

5.547

86%

17.64

9

11

-7.038

1.250

8.289

17

18

-5.577

0.156

5.733

87%

16.38

9

11

-7.149

1.361

8.509

16

15

-5.645

0.287

5.932

88%

15.12

7

8

-7.267

1.477

8.744

16

15

-5.719

0.431

6.150

89%

13.86

7

8

-7.392

1.601

8.994

16

14

-5.799

0.589

6.389

90%

12.60

5

7

-7.525

1.736

9.261

15

12

-5.886

0.764

6.650

91%

11.34

3

7

-7.672

1.882

9.554

14

12

-5.981

0.960

6.941

92%

10.08

3

7

-7.833

2.041

9.874

11

10

-6.089

1.185

7.274

93%

8.82

3

7

-8.012

2.219

10.230

7

9

-6.210

1.446

7.656

94%

7.56

3

5

-8.213

2.418

10.631

5

8

-6.350

1.753

8.104

95%

6.30

3

5

-8.447

2.649

11.096

5

7

-6.518

2.132

8.649

96%

5.04

3

4

-8.722

2.923

11.644

5

4

-6.725

2.613

9.338

97%

3.78

2

4

-9.065

3.263

12.328

3

4

-6.997

3.274

10.271

98%

2.52

2

1

-9.531

3.724

13.255

2

2

-7.399

4.288

11.687

99%

1.26

1

1

-10.28

4.473

14.755

1

1

-8.143

6.291

14.434

Sum/
Ave

265

119

160

-7.718

1.925

9.643

246

265

-6.064

1.242

7.306

Notes: #TR refers to the number of observations that would be theoretically required to be below and above the
boundaries of the confidence band; #ULB and #OUB are the actual numbers found under and over the lower and
upper bounds, respectively; ALB, AUB, and AWCB stand for the average of the n=50 lower and upper bounds
and widths of the 50 confidence intervals comprising each of the 16 bands, respectively; and Sum/Ave. refer to the
sums (for #TR, #ULB, and #OUB) or averages (for ABL, AUB, and AWCB) across the 16 confidence bands.

29



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