Table 6. Select statistics about the 80 to 99% confidence bands for the basis occurrences under the final normal
{FNHAR(4)} and non-normal {FNNHAR(4)} West Texas cotton basis models.
FNHAR(4) MODEL_______________FNNHAR(4) MODEL
|
%CI |
TR# |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
|
80% |
25.20 |
11 |
14 |
-6.483 |
0.697 |
7.180 |
21 |
27 |
-5.241 |
-0.456 |
4.785 |
|
81% |
23.94 |
11 |
14 |
-6.566 |
0.779 |
7.345 |
19 |
24 |
-5.290 |
-0.370 |
4.920 |
|
82% |
22.68 |
10 |
13 |
-6.652 |
0.865 |
7.516 |
19 |
22 |
-5.342 |
-0.278 |
5.064 |
|
83% |
21.42 |
9 |
11 |
-6.741 |
0.954 |
7.695 |
19 |
21 |
-5.396 |
-0.181 |
5.215 |
|
84% |
20.16 |
9 |
11 |
-6.835 |
1.048 |
7.883 |
18 |
20 |
-5.453 |
-0.076 |
5.377 |
|
85% |
18.90 |
9 |
11 |
-6.934 |
1.146 |
8.081 |
17 |
20 |
-5.512 |
0.035 |
5.547 |
|
86% |
17.64 |
9 |
11 |
-7.038 |
1.250 |
8.289 |
17 |
18 |
-5.577 |
0.156 |
5.733 |
|
87% |
16.38 |
9 |
11 |
-7.149 |
1.361 |
8.509 |
16 |
15 |
-5.645 |
0.287 |
5.932 |
|
88% |
15.12 |
7 |
8 |
-7.267 |
1.477 |
8.744 |
16 |
15 |
-5.719 |
0.431 |
6.150 |
|
89% |
13.86 |
7 |
8 |
-7.392 |
1.601 |
8.994 |
16 |
14 |
-5.799 |
0.589 |
6.389 |
|
90% |
12.60 |
5 |
7 |
-7.525 |
1.736 |
9.261 |
15 |
12 |
-5.886 |
0.764 |
6.650 |
|
91% |
11.34 |
3 |
7 |
-7.672 |
1.882 |
9.554 |
14 |
12 |
-5.981 |
0.960 |
6.941 |
|
92% |
10.08 |
3 |
7 |
-7.833 |
2.041 |
9.874 |
11 |
10 |
-6.089 |
1.185 |
7.274 |
|
93% |
8.82 |
3 |
7 |
-8.012 |
2.219 |
10.230 |
7 |
9 |
-6.210 |
1.446 |
7.656 |
|
94% |
7.56 |
3 |
5 |
-8.213 |
2.418 |
10.631 |
5 |
8 |
-6.350 |
1.753 |
8.104 |
|
95% |
6.30 |
3 |
5 |
-8.447 |
2.649 |
11.096 |
5 |
7 |
-6.518 |
2.132 |
8.649 |
|
96% |
5.04 |
3 |
4 |
-8.722 |
2.923 |
11.644 |
5 |
4 |
-6.725 |
2.613 |
9.338 |
|
97% |
3.78 |
2 |
4 |
-9.065 |
3.263 |
12.328 |
3 |
4 |
-6.997 |
3.274 |
10.271 |
|
98% |
2.52 |
2 |
1 |
-9.531 |
3.724 |
13.255 |
2 |
2 |
-7.399 |
4.288 |
11.687 |
|
99% |
1.26 |
1 |
1 |
-10.28 |
4.473 |
14.755 |
1 |
1 |
-8.143 |
6.291 |
14.434 |
|
Sum/ |
265 |
119 |
160 |
-7.718 |
1.925 |
9.643 |
246 |
265 |
-6.064 |
1.242 |
7.306 |
Notes: #TR refers to the number of observations that would be theoretically required to be below and above the
boundaries of the confidence band; #ULB and #OUB are the actual numbers found under and over the lower and
upper bounds, respectively; ALB, AUB, and AWCB stand for the average of the n=50 lower and upper bounds
and widths of the 50 confidence intervals comprising each of the 16 bands, respectively; and Sum/Ave. refer to the
sums (for #TR, #ULB, and #OUB) or averages (for ABL, AUB, and AWCB) across the 16 confidence bands.
29
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