Table 4*. Select statistics about the 80 to 95% confidence bands for the price occurrences under the normal and
non-normal corn and soybean price models.
Normal Corn Price Model____________Non-Normal Corn Price Model
|
%CI |
TR# |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
|
80% |
5.00 |
4 |
3 |
2.249 |
2.993 |
0.744 |
7 |
3 |
2.315 |
2.910 |
0.595 |
|
81% |
4.75 |
3 |
3 |
2.240 |
3.001 |
0.761 |
7 |
3 |
2.305 |
2.920 |
0.615 |
|
82% |
4.50 |
3 |
3 |
2.231 |
3.010 |
0.779 |
7 |
3 |
2.294 |
2.931 |
0.636 |
|
83% |
4.25 |
2 |
3 |
2.222 |
3.019 |
0.797 |
7 |
3 |
2.283 |
2.942 |
0.659 |
|
84% |
4.00 |
2 |
3 |
2.213 |
3.029 |
0.817 |
5 |
3 |
2.270 |
2.955 |
0.684 |
|
85% |
3.75 |
2 |
3 |
2.202 |
3.039 |
0.837 |
4 |
3 |
2.257 |
2.968 |
0.711 |
|
86% |
3.50 |
2 |
3 |
2.191 |
3.050 |
0.859 |
4 |
3 |
2.243 |
2.982 |
0.740 |
|
87% |
3.25 |
2 |
3 |
2.180 |
3.061 |
0.881 |
2 |
3 |
2.227 |
2.998 |
0.771 |
|
88% |
3.00 |
1 |
3 |
2.168 |
3.074 |
0.905 |
2 |
3 |
2.210 |
3.015 |
0.806 |
|
89% |
2.75 |
1 |
3 |
2.155 |
3.087 |
0.931 |
2 |
3 |
2.191 |
3.035 |
0.844 |
|
90% |
2.50 |
1 |
3 |
2.141 |
3.100 |
0.959 |
1 |
3 |
2.169 |
3.056 |
0.887 |
|
91% |
2.25 |
1 |
3 |
2.126 |
3.116 |
0.989 |
1 |
3 |
2.145 |
3.080 |
0.935 |
|
92% |
2.00 |
1 |
3 |
2.109 |
3.132 |
1.023 |
1 |
3 |
2.117 |
3.108 |
0.991 |
|
93% |
1.75 |
1 |
2 |
2.091 |
3.151 |
1.060 |
1 |
3 |
2.085 |
3.141 |
1.056 |
|
94% |
1.50 |
1 |
2 |
2.070 |
3.171 |
1.101 |
1 |
2 |
2.046 |
3.180 |
1.134 |
|
95% |
1.25 |
1 |
2 |
2.047 |
3.195 |
1.149 |
0 |
2 |
1.998 |
3.228 |
1.230 |
|
Sum/Ave |
50 |
28 |
45 |
2.165 |
3.077 |
0.912 |
52 |
46 |
2.197 |
3.028 |
0.831 |
|
______Normal Soybean Price Model______ |
Non-Normal Soybean Price Model | ||||||||||
|
%CI |
#TR |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
#ULB |
#OUB |
ALB |
AUB |
AWCB |
|
80% |
5.00 |
2 |
5 |
5.220 |
6.989 |
1.768 |
6 |
4 |
5.410 |
7.001 |
1.592 |
|
81% |
4.75 |
2 |
5 |
5.200 |
7.009 |
1.809 |
5 |
4 |
5.401 |
7.035 |
1.634 |
|
82% |
4.50 |
1 |
5 |
5.179 |
7.030 |
1.851 |
5 |
4 |
5.391 |
7.071 |
1.680 |
|
83% |
4.25 |
0 |
5 |
5.157 |
7.052 |
1.895 |
5 |
4 |
5.382 |
7.110 |
1.728 |
|
84% |
4.00 |
0 |
5 |
5.134 |
7.075 |
1.941 |
5 |
4 |
5.372 |
7.151 |
1.779 |
|
85% |
3.75 |
0 |
5 |
5.109 |
7.099 |
1.990 |
5 |
3 |
5.362 |
7.195 |
1.833 |
|
86% |
3.50 |
0 |
4 |
5.083 |
7.125 |
2.041 |
5 |
3 |
5.351 |
7.243 |
1.891 |
|
87% |
3.25 |
0 |
4 |
5.057 |
7.152 |
2.095 |
5 |
2 |
5.340 |
7.295 |
1.955 |
|
88% |
3.00 |
0 |
3 |
5.028 |
7.181 |
2.153 |
4 |
2 |
5.328 |
7.352 |
2.024 |
|
89% |
2.75 |
0 |
3 |
4.997 |
7.212 |
2.214 |
3 |
2 |
5.316 |
7.414 |
2.098 |
|
90% |
2.50 |
0 |
3 |
4.964 |
7.245 |
2.280 |
3 |
2 |
5.303 |
7.483 |
2.180 |
|
91% |
2.25 |
0 |
3 |
4.929 |
7.280 |
2.352 |
3 |
2 |
5.289 |
7.561 |
2.272 |
|
92% |
2.00 |
0 |
2 |
4.889 |
7.320 |
2.432 |
2 |
2 |
5.273 |
7.650 |
2.377 |
|
93% |
1.75 |
0 |
2 |
4.844 |
7.364 |
2.520 |
1 |
2 |
5.256 |
7.752 |
2.496 |
|
94% |
1.50 |
0 |
2 |
4.795 |
7.413 |
2.618 |
1 |
1 |
5.237 |
7.875 |
2.637 |
|
95% |
1.25 |
0 |
2 |
4.738 |
7.470 |
2.732 |
1 |
1 |
5.216 |
8.021 |
2.805 |
|
Sum/Ave |
50 |
5 |
58 |
5.020 |
7.189 |
2.168 |
59 |
42 |
5.327 |
7.388 |
2.061 |
*See notes below Table 5 for the definitions of the labels and summary statistics presented in Table 2.
27