ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS FOR APPLIED AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH



Table 4*. Select statistics about the 80 to 95% confidence bands for the price occurrences under the normal and
non-normal corn and soybean price models.

Normal Corn Price Model____________Non-Normal Corn Price Model

%CI

TR#

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

80%

5.00

4

3

2.249

2.993

0.744

7

3

2.315

2.910

0.595

81%

4.75

3

3

2.240

3.001

0.761

7

3

2.305

2.920

0.615

82%

4.50

3

3

2.231

3.010

0.779

7

3

2.294

2.931

0.636

83%

4.25

2

3

2.222

3.019

0.797

7

3

2.283

2.942

0.659

84%

4.00

2

3

2.213

3.029

0.817

5

3

2.270

2.955

0.684

85%

3.75

2

3

2.202

3.039

0.837

4

3

2.257

2.968

0.711

86%

3.50

2

3

2.191

3.050

0.859

4

3

2.243

2.982

0.740

87%

3.25

2

3

2.180

3.061

0.881

2

3

2.227

2.998

0.771

88%

3.00

1

3

2.168

3.074

0.905

2

3

2.210

3.015

0.806

89%

2.75

1

3

2.155

3.087

0.931

2

3

2.191

3.035

0.844

90%

2.50

1

3

2.141

3.100

0.959

1

3

2.169

3.056

0.887

91%

2.25

1

3

2.126

3.116

0.989

1

3

2.145

3.080

0.935

92%

2.00

1

3

2.109

3.132

1.023

1

3

2.117

3.108

0.991

93%

1.75

1

2

2.091

3.151

1.060

1

3

2.085

3.141

1.056

94%

1.50

1

2

2.070

3.171

1.101

1

2

2.046

3.180

1.134

95%

1.25

1

2

2.047

3.195

1.149

0

2

1.998

3.228

1.230

Sum/Ave

50

28

45

2.165

3.077

0.912

52

46

2.197

3.028

0.831

______Normal Soybean Price Model______

Non-Normal Soybean Price Model

%CI

#TR

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

#ULB

#OUB

ALB

AUB

AWCB

80%

5.00

2

5

5.220

6.989

1.768

6

4

5.410

7.001

1.592

81%

4.75

2

5

5.200

7.009

1.809

5

4

5.401

7.035

1.634

82%

4.50

1

5

5.179

7.030

1.851

5

4

5.391

7.071

1.680

83%

4.25

0

5

5.157

7.052

1.895

5

4

5.382

7.110

1.728

84%

4.00

0

5

5.134

7.075

1.941

5

4

5.372

7.151

1.779

85%

3.75

0

5

5.109

7.099

1.990

5

3

5.362

7.195

1.833

86%

3.50

0

4

5.083

7.125

2.041

5

3

5.351

7.243

1.891

87%

3.25

0

4

5.057

7.152

2.095

5

2

5.340

7.295

1.955

88%

3.00

0

3

5.028

7.181

2.153

4

2

5.328

7.352

2.024

89%

2.75

0

3

4.997

7.212

2.214

3

2

5.316

7.414

2.098

90%

2.50

0

3

4.964

7.245

2.280

3

2

5.303

7.483

2.180

91%

2.25

0

3

4.929

7.280

2.352

3

2

5.289

7.561

2.272

92%

2.00

0

2

4.889

7.320

2.432

2

2

5.273

7.650

2.377

93%

1.75

0

2

4.844

7.364

2.520

1

2

5.256

7.752

2.496

94%

1.50

0

2

4.795

7.413

2.618

1

1

5.237

7.875

2.637

95%

1.25

0

2

4.738

7.470

2.732

1

1

5.216

8.021

2.805

Sum/Ave

50

5

58

5.020

7.189

2.168

59

42

5.327

7.388

2.061

*See notes below Table 5 for the definitions of the labels and summary statistics presented in Table 2.

27



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