RETAIL SALES: DO THEY MEAN REDUCED EXPENDITURES? GERMAN GROCERY EVIDENCE



Tab. 3: Estimation results for the relationship between the retail price index (per
capita expenditures) and the number of sales

Endogenous
n=289

Price Index SSM
Coefficient t-value

Price Index BSM
Coefficient t-value

Price Index CSM
Coefficient t-value

Price Index DC
Coefficient t-value

dPRT_1

-0,40

-4,22

-0,53

-7,31

-0,68

-10,50

-0,51

-6,38

dPRT_2

-0,43

-4,84

-0,45

-6,24

-0,62

-8,86

-0,30

-3,85

dPRT_3

-0,15

-1,97

-0,28

-4,35

-0,44

-6,71

-0,34

-4,70

dPRT_4

0,01

0,16

-0,07

-1,55

-0,11

-2,40

-0,14

-2,59

Constant

1087,11

4,56

560,65

3,27

164,31

1,69

696,70

4,10

PRT_1

-0,47

-4,95

-0,25

-4,26

-0,18

-3,99

-0,39

-4,99

PWS_1

0,32

4,17

0,22

4,23

0,26

3,63

0,27

3,57

dPWS

0,22

0,75

-0,14

-0,76

0,17

0,96

-0,02

-0,06

dPWS_1

-0,53

-1,68

-0,19

-0,94

-0,25

-1,22

0,10

0,29

dPWS_2

0,15

0,48

-0,23

-1,16

0,06

0,30

-0,26

-0,73

dPWS_3

-0,75

-2,41

0,11

0,56

0,03

0,16

-0,35

-0,97

dPWS_4

0,41

1,33

-0,01

-0,07

0,05

0,26

-0,31

-0,88

SM

-306,58

-11,60

-359,72

-14,20

-323,33

-12,50

-168,77

-10,00

SM_1

105,09

3,19

96,79

2,90

89,93

2,80

12,44

0,63

SM_2

27,69

0,84

39,93

1,17

37,52

1,17

5,90

0,30

SM_3

60,65

1,85

50,15

1,48

68,61

2,14

-18,72

-0,94

SM_4

4,78

0,15

49,11

1,43

94,20

2,93

28,56

1,46

SF&V

-35,95

-1,92

-42,25

-2,13

-1,17

-0,05

-11,74

-0,97

SF&V_1

36,99

1,84

-12,43

-0,61

-30,30

-1,27

-10,15

-0,82

SF&V_2

-5,58

-0,28

10,61

0,51

41,21

1,71

-16,96

-1,38

SF&V_3

-2,61

-0,13

-18,53

-0,90

-31,31

-1,30

13,17

1,09

SF&V_4

6,66

0,35

37,18

1,91

31,73

1,44

6,88

0,57

R^2

0,73

-

0,71

-

0,73

-

0,64

-

DW

2,01

-

1,99

-

2,08

-

2,05

-

AR2: F(2,254)=

0,65

[0,52]

1,81

[0,17]

2,95

[0,05]

2,33

[0,10]

ARCH1: F(1,254)=

2,11

[0,15]

0,00

[0,99]

1,00

[0,32]

0,17

[0,68]

Normality: Chi^2(2)=

2,40

[0,30]

5,36

[0,07]

9,71

[0,01]**

31,93

[0,00]**

Heterosk.: F(53,202)=

0,84

[0,77]

0,90

[0,67]

0,77

[0,87]

1,08

[0,35]

Reset: F(1,255)=

0,57

[0,45]

2,10

[0,15]

0,80

[0,37]

0,07

[0,79]

ΣSM=0: Chi^2(1)=

2,86

[0,09]

6,17

[0,01]*

0,47

[0,50]

15,43

[0,00]**

ΣSF&V=0: Chi^2(1)=

0,00

[0,99]

0,94

[0,33]

0,19

[0,66]

1,12

[0,29]

Legend: Calculations are run with Ox 3.0 and PcGive 10.0 (Doornik and Hendry, 2001). Estimates for the seasonal
components are not documented here.

Source: Data by ZMP, 2001.

11



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