Finally, there is some empirical evidence that AFQT scores moderate the impact
of enrollment delay on college graduation.15 Table 7 presents estimates of the impact of
delaying college enrollment by one year for individuals in different AFQT percentile score
categories when AFQT score - duration of enrollment delay interaction variable is
included in the DCR model. As can be seen from the table, the adverse impact of
enrollment delay on the probability of graduation from four-year college is concentrated
primarily among those in the lower AFQT score categories. For example, among those
first entering a four-year institution, the estimated decline in the probability of attaining a
four-year degree by delaying enrollment by one year is 7.6 percent for those with AFQT
percentile scores in the 75-99 range. The estimated decline in the probability of attaining
a four-year degree by delaying enrollment one year increases to 32.9 percent for those
with AFQT percentile scores in the 25-49 range and 52.5 percent for those with AFQT
percentile scores in the 0-24 range.
6. Summary and Concluding Remarks
The main findings of the paper are: First, the delay between high school
graduation and college enrollment is an important determinant of college graduation . The
15Other possible moderators of the impact of delay that were investigated were family income and gender
but only the AFQT score- delay duration interaction achieved statistical significance.
24
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