WP 48 - Population ageing in the Netherlands: Demographic and financial arguments for a balanced approach

Wiemer Salverda

My findings point out that the official view of the government and its advisors and various political
parties exaggerates the socio-economic problem and constrains the debate in such a way that
important aspects of population ageing and the way it is funded are overlooked - at the risk of a
kind of tunnel vision. My key argument is that the issue of the country’s ageing population in the
decades ahead - demographically and therefore financially - is viewed insufficiently from a cohort
perspective. Approached on this basis, we find that the future problem is of modest proportions.
The cohort approach takes into account precautions that people take for their old age when they
are still young - with its very impressive occupational pension savings, the Netherlands is virtually
unique in this respect. In addition I argue that there are significant disparities in ageing between
different social groups and that important transaction cost are associated with different types of
financial provisions for old age. Both factors can have major socio-economic repercussions and can
lead to unintended transfers but - quite mistakenly - do not feature in the Dutch debate on ageing.

I will look first at demographic trends from a cohort perspective in Section 2 and then at funding for
old age in Section 3, before focusing on inequalities in both in Section 4. The paper ends with
conclusions and comments on policy.

AIAS - UvA

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