WP 48 - Population ageing in the Netherlands: Demographic and financial arguments for a balanced approach

Population ageing in the Netherlands: Demographic and Financial arguments for a balanced approach

2 Life expectancy and demographic pressure: cohort

VERSUS CALENDAR POPULATION

Although we cannot deny that large demographic shifts are taking place, it is nevertheless possible to
put them in perspective in order to better assess their economic impact. With regard to the extent
of population ageing, it is significant that the increase in life expectancy is much smaller at a later age,
especially at 65, than at birth. A cohort approach shows this clearly, leading us to conclude that the
anticipated growth in the old-age dependency ratio is modest.

The life expectancy of 79 years mentioned at the start needs to be qualified. It represents the
average number of years that a newborn from 2006 can expect to live, not how long the country’s
current 16 million inhabitants may expect to live on average. Life expectancy at birth has increased
largely as a result of falling child mortality rates, with a growing number of people first reaching
adulthood and then the age of 65. While the latter group does on average live somewhat longer
than those of similar age did in the past, this increase is extremely small in comparison to the gains
made at birth. People are older when they die, but not necessarily old. This distinction plays a
surprisingly minor role in the Dutch debate on ageing. And absent altogether from the debate is the
fact that the Netherlands is trailing behind internationally in terms of life expectancy. Whereas in
1960 Dutch men and women still held first place among the 15 EU countries in terms of life
expectancy, Dutch men have since fallen to fifth place and women to eleventh (Garssen, 2005,
Figure 1). Eurostat expects to see the Netherlands below the average of EU including the new
member states in 2050 (EPC, 2006, 28).

AIAS - UvA

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