Table 8. Predicted Revenue and Number of Pass Holders (Non-Parametric Estimates)
|
RDD Sample |
NPF Sample | |||||
|
Price |
Predicted |
NRP Revenue |
Gate Revenue |
Predicted |
NRP Revenue |
Gate Revenue |
|
15 |
2,698.2 |
40.5 |
137.9 |
41,414 |
0.62 |
0.11 |
|
25 |
1,828.4 |
45.7 |
155.2 |
39,609 |
0.99 |
0.15 |
|
35 |
1,207.1 |
42.2 |
173.8 |
35,133 |
1.23 |
0.28 |
|
45 |
603.6 |
27.2 |
198.0 |
27,610 |
1.24 |
0.59 |
|
55 |
497.0 |
27.3 |
203.8 |
20,989 |
1.15 |
0.92 |
|
65 |
461.5 |
30.0 |
205.8 |
15,385 |
1.00 |
1.25 |
|
75 |
319.5 |
24.0 |
216.1 |
12,940 |
0.97 |
1.42 |
|
85 |
284.0 |
24.1 |
218.8 |
9,667 |
0.82 |
1.68 |
|
95 |
248.5 |
23.6 |
222.1 |
7,335 |
0.70 |
1.89 |
|
105 |
213.0 |
22.4 |
225.7 |
4,965 |
0.52 |
2.13 |
|
115 |
88.8 |
10.2 |
239.6 |
3,987 |
0.46 |
2.23 |
|
125 |
71.0 |
8.9 |
241.8 |
2,972 |
0.37 |
2.36 |
|
135 |
53.3 |
7.2 |
244.2 |
2,520 |
0.34 |
2.42 |
|
145 |
17.8 |
2.6 |
249.3 |
1,881 |
0.27 |
2.51 |
|
155 |
17.8 |
2.8 |
249.3 |
1,241 |
0.19 |
2.60 |
|
165 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
1,091 |
0.18 |
2.63 |
|
175 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
828 |
0.14 |
2.67 |
|
185 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
715 |
0.13 |
2.69 |
|
195 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
489 |
0.10 |
2.73 |
|
205 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
226 |
0.05 |
2.79 |
|
215 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
226 |
0.05 |
2.79 |
|
225 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
113 |
0.03 |
2.81 |
|
235 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
113 |
0.03 |
2.81 |
|
245 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
113 |
0.03 |
2.81 |
|
255 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
75 |
0.02 |
2.82 |
|
265 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
75 |
0.02 |
2.82 |
|
275 |
0 |
0 |
252.1 |
0 |
0 |
2.84 |
Notes. For simplicity, price points at the extremes of the bid range are excluded. RDD survey data have been
calibrated to reflect $30 million in NRP revenue at $65, based on current annual pass sales. NPF survey data have
been calibrated to reflect $1 million in NRP revenue at $65, based on estimated NPP and GEP sales to former
purchasers through NPF. Revenue and pass holder figures are calculated using the midpoint of the WTP interval.
Households that state “YES” to both bids are assigned a WTP equal to $10 plus the highest bid. For the RDD
sample, 67 protest households have been omitted, leaving a sample size of N = 462. For the NPF sample, 30
protest households have been omitted, leaving a sample size of N = 1461.
33