Figure 5 - Prediction for Fitch
5a - OLS 5b - Random effects estimation without country specific error
|
AAA |
AA+ |
AA |
AA- |
A+ |
A |
A- |
BBB+ |
Actual BBB BBB- |
BB+ |
BB |
BB- |
B+ |
B |
B- |
<CCC+ |
AAA |
AA+ AA |
AA- |
A+ A |
A- |
Actual BBB+ BBB BBB- |
BB+ BB BB- |
B+ |
B__ |
B- |
<CCC+ | ||||||||||
|
AAA |
63 |
12 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
AAA |
51 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
0 0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|
AA+ |
35 |
10 |
12 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
AA+ |
32 |
11 |
16 |
7 |
00 |
0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
AA |
20 |
8 |
18 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
AA |
31 |
6 |
16 |
5 |
03 |
0 |
0 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
AA- |
0 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
AA- |
1 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
19 |
0 |
0 0 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
A+ |
2 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
A+ |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
02 |
1 |
1 2 1 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
00 |
4 |
000 |
0 |
0 | ||||||||||||||||||
|
A- |
0 |
0 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
A- |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
00 |
7 |
000 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
B |
BBB+ BBB BBB- |
0 |
6 8 |
8 8 0 |
4 10 5 |
0 3 33 |
0 1 9 |
1 0 4 |
0 0 0 |
0 0 |
0 |
Predicted |
BBB+ BBB BBB- |
0 |
0 0 |
0 0 0 |
00 00 0 0 |
7 8 0 |
740 10 6 11 0 9 25 |
0 1 8 |
1 0 3 |
0 0 0 0 00 |
0 0 |
0 | ||||||||||||
|
BB+ |
3 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
BB+ |
0 0 |
0 |
036 |
16 |
11 |
00 |
0 |
0 |
0 | ||||||||||||||||||
|
BB BB- B+ B B- |
1 |
11 8 |
9 8 1 |
3 8 5 0 |
6 6 5 2 0 |
0 2 6 2 1 0 |
0 0 3 6 0 _3 |
0 0 1 2 3 _____4 |
BB BB- B+ B B- |
0 |
0 0 |
001 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 |
9 8 0 0 0 __0 |
8 7 3 0 0 0 |
28 84 67 00 00 0___0_ |
0 4 3 3 1 0 |
0 0 3 6 2 1 |
0 0 1 3 3 _____1 | ||||||||||||||||||
|
5c - Ordered Probit |
5d - Random effects ordered Probit | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
AAA |
AA+ |
AA |
AA- |
A+ |
A |
A- |
BBB+ |
Actual BBB BBB- |
BB+ |
BB |
BB- |
B+ |
B |
B- |
<CCC+ |
AAA |
AA+ |
AA |
AA- |
A+ A |
A- |
Actual BBB+ BBB BBB- |
BB+ |
BB BB |
- B+ |
B |
B- |
<CCC+ | ||||||||
|
AAA |
85 |
18 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
AAA |
69 |
20 |
5 |
3 |
0 0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|
AA+ |
24 |
6 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
AA+ |
45 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
00 |
0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
AA |
9 |
6 |
14 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
AA |
7 |
7 |
11 |
0 |
00 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
AA- |
0 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
AA- |
0 |
0 |
14 |
8 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
|
A+ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
A+ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
05 |
0 |
0 |
00 |
0 | |||||||||||||||||
|
A |
5 |
6 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
21 |
0 |
0 | ||||||||||||||||
|
A- |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
A- |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
20 |
8 |
43 |
0 |
1 |
0 | ||||||||||||||||
|
B |
BBB+ BBB BBB- |
0 |
0 0 |
6 3 1 |
5 7 2 |
4 4 13 |
0 4 32 |
0 1 9 |
0 0 5 |
0 0 0 |
0 0 |
0 |
Predicted |
BBB+ BBB BBB- |
0 |
0 0 |
02 00 0 0 |
9 8 2 |
12 1 0 |
21 8 16 7 21 |
1 2 15 |
0 0 7 |
0 0 00 20 |
0 0 |
0 | |||||||||||
|
BB+ |
0 |
1 |
7 |
17 |
12 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
BB+ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
8 |
11 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
BB BB- B+ B B- |
0 |
0 0 |
10 5 0 |
6 5 4 0 |
5 5 6 0 0 |
5 4 5 2 1 0 |
1 0 6 2 2 0 |
0 0 1 6 2 3 |
0 0 1 1 4 _____4 |
BB BB- B+ B B- |
0 |
0 0 |
11 00 0 0 0 |
10 5 5 0 0 |
8 6 4 0 0 0 |
77 64 52 00 00 _0___0 |
2 3 5 0 0 __1 |
1 3 3 2 3 __2 |
0 1 2 2 1 ______4 | |||||||||||||||||
Note: observations above (below) the diagonal are predicted by the model above (below) the actual rating.
56
More intriguing information
1. Connectionism, Analogicity and Mental Content2. HACCP AND MEAT AND POULTRY INSPECTION
3. Developmental Robots - A New Paradigm
4. Großhandel: Steigende Umsätze und schwungvolle Investitionsdynamik
5. The name is absent
6. Implementation of the Ordinal Shapley Value for a three-agent economy
7. The name is absent
8. Integration, Regional Specialization and Growth Differentials in EU Acceding Countries: Evidence from Hungary
9. The name is absent
10. Conflict and Uncertainty: A Dynamic Approach