The name is absent



Figure 5 - Prediction for Fitch

5a - OLS                                                               5b - Random effects estimation without country specific error

AAA

AA+

AA

AA-

A+

A

A-

BBB+

Actual

BBB BBB-

BB+

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-

<CCC+

AAA

AA+ AA

AA-

A+ A

A-

Actual

BBB+ BBB BBB-

BB+ BB BB-

B+

B__

B-

<CCC+

AAA

63

12

0

2

0

0

AAA

51

13

0

2

0   0

0

AA+

35

10

12

7

0

0

0

AA+

32

11

16

7

00

0

0

AA

20

8

18

4

0

2

0

0

AA

31

6

16

5

03

0

0     0

AA-

0

9

2

0

6

0

0

0

AA-

1

0

6

1

19

0

0     0     0

A+

2

6

1

6

1

1

2

1

A+

0

0

3

6

02

1

1       2       1

0

A

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

A

0

0

0

0

00

4

000

0

0

A-

0

0

10

1

0

0

0

0

A-

0

0

0

0

00

7

000

0

0

0

B
O

oZ

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

0

6

8

8

8

0

4

10

5

0

3

33

0

1

9

1

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

Predicted

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

0

0

0

0

0

0

00

00

0   0

7

8

0

740

10     6    11

0     9   25

0

1

8

1

0

3

0   0

0   0

00

0

0

0

BB+

3

6

13

10

0

0

0

0

BB+

0   0

0

036

16

11

00

0

0

0

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-
≤CCC+

1

11

8

9

8

1

3

8

5

0

6

6

5

2

0

0

2

6

2

1

0

0

0

3

6

0

_3

0

0

1

2

3

_____4

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-
≤CCC+

0

0

0

001

000

0     0     0

0     0

0

9

8

0

0

0

__0

8

7

3

0

0

0

28

84

67

00

00

0___0_

0

4

3

3

1

0

0

0

3

6

2

1

0

0

1

3

3

_____1

5c - Ordered Probit

5d - Random effects ordered Probit

AAA

AA+

AA

AA-

A+

A

A-

BBB+

Actual

BBB BBB-

BB+

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-

<CCC+

AAA

AA+

AA

AA-

A+ A

A-

Actual

BBB+ BBB BBB-

BB+

BB BB

- B+

B

B-

<CCC+

AAA

85

18

7

5

0

0

AAA

69

20

5

3

0 0

0

AA+

24

6

11

4

0

0

0

AA+

45

8

11

10

00

0

0

AA

9

6

14

4

0

5

0

0

AA

7

7

11

0

00

0

0

0

AA-

0

0

4

2

0

6

0

0

0

AA-

0

0

14

8

16

0

0

0     0

A+

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

A+

0

0

0

0

05

0

0

00

0

A

5

6

0

2

0

1

1

0

0

A

0

0

0

2

13

7

1

21

0

0

A-

0

0

0

17

3

1

1

0

1

A-

0

0

0

48

20

8

43

0

1

0

B
O

oZ

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

0

0

0

6

3

1

5

7

2

4

4

13

0

4

32

0

1

9

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

Predicted

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

0

0

0

02

00

0 0

9

8

2

12

1

0

21

8    16

7    21

1

2

15

0

0

7

0 0

00

20

0

0

0

BB+

0

1

7

17

12

0

2

0

0

BB+

0

0

0

26

8

11

27

0

0

1

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-
≤CCC+

0

0

0

10

5

0

6

5

4

0

5

5

6

0

0

5

4

5

2

1

0

1

0

6

2

2

0

0

0

1

6

2

3

0

0

1

1

4

_____4

BB

BB-

B+

B

B-
≤CCC+

0

0

0

11

00

0     0

0

10

5

5

0

0

8

6

4

0

0

0

77

64

52

00

00

_0___0

2

3

5

0

0

__1

1

3

3

2

3

__2

0

1

2

2

1

______4

Note: observations above (below) the diagonal are predicted by the model above (below) the actual rating.

56



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