4a - OLS
Figure 4 - Prediction for S&P
4b - Random effects estimation without country specific error
|
AAA AA+ AA |
Actual |
B- |
<CCC+ | ||||||||
|
AA- |
A+ A |
A- |
BBB+ BBB BBB- |
BB+ BB |
BB- |
B+ |
B | ||||
|
AAA |
83 32 3 |
1 |
7 0 | ||||||||
|
AA+ |
35 19 10 |
0 |
3 0 |
0 | |||||||
|
AA |
2 3 5 |
3 |
25 |
0 |
0 | ||||||
|
AA- |
0 0 6 |
2 |
04 |
0 |
0 0 | ||||||
|
A+ |
0 3 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
0 1 1 | ||||||
|
A |
0 |
2 |
12 |
3 |
0 0 1 |
0 | |||||
|
A- |
0 |
03 |
13 |
121 |
0 0 | ||||||
|
φ BBB+ |
0 0 |
2 |
120 |
0 0 |
0 | ||||||
|
⅛ BBB |
0 |
6 |
10 9 10 |
10 |
0 |
0 | |||||
|
£L BBB- |
1 |
2 19 27 |
13 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |||||
|
BB+ |
0 0 11 |
6 13 |
8 |
0 |
2 |
0 | |||||
|
BB |
0 2 |
12 21 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 | ||||
|
BB- |
0 |
5 11 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
1 | ||||
|
B+ |
0 1 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
3 |
1 | |||||
|
B |
0 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
6 | |||||
|
B- |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 | ||||||
|
≤CCC+ |
3 |
1 |
6 |
_____6 | |||||||
Note: observations above (below) the diagonal are predicted by the model above (below) the actual rating.
55
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