The name is absent

IV. General Population, Aboriginal Population and Economic
Projections

In order to project the potential contribution of the Aboriginal population to the overall
labour force, employment, output, and productivity, one requires base case projections for the
overall population growth in Canada as well as for the Aboriginal population. Projections of
aggregate employment, output and labour productivity for Canada over the 2001-2017 must also
be obtained. This section provides these projections.

Three main sources are used for projections in this report. General population projections
for the 2005-2031 period are taken from Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and
Territories, Statistics Canada (2005b). Aboriginal population projections are from Projections of
the Aboriginal Populations, Canada, Provinces and Territories (Statistics Canada, 2005a).
Long-term economic forecasts are from the report Long Term Outlook for the Canadian
Economy: National Projection Through 2025 by Peter Dungan and Steve Murphy (2007) from
the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of Toronto. This source is used as a benchmark
for output, productivity, wages, participation and employment in 2017.

A. Projections for the General Population

i. Statistics Canada

In the publication Populations Projections of Statistics Canada (2005b), the general
population is projected using six projection scenarios based on different assumptions about
fertility, mortality (life expectancy) and migration. For the purposes of this report the third
scenario will be used. Scenario 3 is a medium growth scenario with medium fertility rates,
medium life expectancy projections and medium migration trends. Fertility rate assumptions are
based on a detailed analysis of the trends in the fertility rate specific to each province and
territory. Under Scenario 3, fertility rates for Canada are set at the 2002 level of 1.51 children per
woman and remain at that level until 2017 (2002 was the most recent year for which vital
statistics data were available). The mean age of childbearing is also set at its 2002 level of 29.2
years. Life expectancy is expected to be 79.6 years for males and 84.2 years for females in 2017.
Finally migration trends, both international and inter-provincial, are projected using a number of
underlying assumptions, including immigration and emigration rates, returning emigrants rates
and recent data on inter-provincial movements.

Table 8:Statistics Canada Population Projections for Canada. 2001-2017

<<   <   56   57   58   59   60   61   62   >   >>