60
Statistics Canada does not provide values for the year 2017. However, it provides
projections for the years 2016 and 2021. To obtain an estimate for 2017, the average annual
growth rate for the 2016-2021 period was calculated and applied to the 2016 estimate to obtain a
value for 2017. The Canadian population is projected to reach 35,538,000 people by 2017 under
Scenario 3, an increase of 14.7 per cent over 2001 (Table 8). The population aged 15 and older is
anticipated to reach 30,054,000 (an increase of 23.8 per cent over 2001) and the population aged
15 to 64 years old is expected to be 24,049,000 (an increase of 17.9 per cent over 2001). The
median age of the population is predicted to reach 41.4 years in 2017, up from 37.6 years in
2001.
ii. Institute for Policy Analysis
The Institute for Policy Analysis (IPA, Dungan and Murphy (2007)) of the University of
Toronto provides projections of major economic indicators in Canada up to 2025. Their
population projection is very similar to the medium growth scenario of Statistics Canada.
Population is expected to grow at a decreasing rate between now and 2025 (1 per cent in 2006,
and gradually down to 0.78 per cent in 2025). In 2017, the year of particular interest for this
report, the Canadian population is expected to be at 35,916,000. This suggests a 16.0 per cent
increase over the 2001-2017 period, a mere 1.3 percentage points more than the 14.7 per cent
increase projected by Statistics Canada.
B. Projections for the Aboriginal Population
The Statistics Canada (2005a) publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population,
Canada, provinces and territories, 2001 to 2017 elaborates five projection scenarios for the
Aboriginal population to 2017. The five scenarios presented make different underlying
assumptions about fertility rates, mortality rates and migration trends. From these scenarios, the
projected future importance of the Aboriginal population to the Canadian labour market can be
calculated. All of the scenarios, excluding Scenario S, assume a perfect continuity in the transfer
of Aboriginality from mother to child.24 The five scenarios are explained in detail below.
• Scenario A: High Population Growth Scenario. It assumes that the fertility rates
estimated in 2001 remain constant (Table 12), mortality rates are in decline (Table 13)
and that the migration trends25 remain the same as those of the second half of the 1990s.
• Scenario B: Medium Population Growth Scenario. It assumes a slow decline in fertility
rates, while mortality rates and migration trends are the same as in Scenario A.
24 Perfect continuity means that newborn children have the identity of their mother. However, this may not be the
case, and some children may be identified differently than their mother. Statistics Canada used the —Continuity
Index” defined as the total number of children with a given identity related to the number of children born to
mothers with the same identity. Data shows gains in each identity group in the number of births.
25 Internal migration is included mainly for the provincial estimates, since migration trend may differ by region or
province. However, there may be a very little effect at the national effect, and what there is reflects changes in
behaviour of migrants who would move to a region with different fertility and mortality levels.