62
growth for Aboriginal Canadians, which is to outpace total population growth, will most likely
continue well beyond 2017.
Table 11: Aboriginal Identity Population Projections, Share of the Total Population, Canada,
2006, 2011 and 2017
|
Scenario |
2001 |
2006 |
2011 |
2017 |
Percentage Point |
|
A |
3^44 |
3^59 |
3^78 |
4^03 |
0^59 |
|
B |
3.44 |
3.59 |
3.77 |
4.00 |
0.55 |
|
C |
3.44 |
3.59 |
3.77 |
4.02 |
0.57 |
|
D |
3.44 |
3.58 |
3.74 |
3.91 |
0.47 |
|
S________ |
3.44 |
3.63 |
3.86 |
4.14 |
__________0.70________ |
|
Source: Statistics Canada (2005a and 2005b) | |||||
Note: Total general population is based on Scenario 3
In each of the scenario, the Aboriginal population makes up an increasingly large portion
of the Canadian and provincial populations (Table 11 and Appendix Tables 16 to 21). The
highest increase in the shares is found in Scenario S, in which Aboriginal individuals represent a
0.70 percentage point higher share of the overall population in 2017 than in 2001. Even in the
more modest scenario (D), the Aboriginal population is predicted to represent 0.47 percentage
points more of the total population in 2017 than in 2001.
Table 12: Total Fertility Rates by Aboriginal Group and Scenario, Canada, 2017
Declining
|
Constant |
Ethnic |
|
Slowly Moderately Rapidly Transfer |
|
(Scenario A) |
(Scenario B) |
(Scenario C) |
(Scenario D) |
(Scenario S) | |
|
North | |||||
|
American |
2.86 |
2.71 |
2.56 |
2.18 |
3.12 |
|
Indians | |||||
|
Metis |
2.17 |
2.06 |
1.95 |
1.93 |
2.48 |
|
Inuit |
3.37 |
3.19 |
3.02 |
2.36 |
3.47 |
Source: Statistics Canada (2005)
The Aboriginal Identity population makes up a growing percentage of the Canadian
population because Aboriginal Canadians have a higher birth rate than the general population.
The fertility rates vary greatly among Aboriginal Identity groups: North American Indians (2.86
children per woman), Metis (2.17 children per woman) and Inuit (3.37 children per woman)
(Table 12). All three were, however, still consistently higher than that of the overall population
in 2001 (1.51 children per woman).
Life expectancy at birth in 2001 was much lower for the Aboriginal population,
compared to the general population. Overall in Canada, life expectancy was 77.0 years for men
and 82.2 years for women. Inuits had by far the lowest life expectancy, with 62.6 years for men
and 71.7 years for women. North American Indian and Metis men had a life expectancy of 71.1
and 71.9 years, respectively. Women had higher life expectancy, as usual, with 76.7 and 77.7
years respectively (Table 13).