61
• Scenario C: Medium Population Growth Scenario. It assumes a moderate decline in
fertility and the mortality trends are those of Scenario A. Migration trends are estimated
by extrapolation into the 2001 to 2017 period of the trends observed at the beginning of
the 1990s.
• Scenario D: Low Population Growth Scenario. It assumes a rapid decline in fertility
rates with fertility converging to reach 1.8 children per woman by 2026.
• Scenario S: Does not assume a perfect continuity in the transfer of Aboriginality from
mother to child. Instead the 2001 Aboriginality transfers are extrapolated into the 16 year
projection period. The mortality and migration trends are the same as in Scenario A.
Table 9: Aboriginal Identity Population Projections, in thousands, Canada, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2017
|
Scenario |
2001 |
Population in thousands |
2017 |
Absolute Change |
% Change 2001-2017 |
Average Growth Rate 2001-2017 | |
|
2006 |
2011 | ||||||
|
A |
1,066.5 |
1,169.5 |
1,282.8 |
1,431.8 |
262.3 |
34.3 |
1.86 |
|
B |
1,066.5 |
1,168.6 |
1,278.4 |
1,420.0 |
251.4 |
33.1 |
1.81 |
|
C |
1,066.5 |
1,168.9 |
1,280.8 |
1,427.9 |
259.0 |
33.9 |
1.84 |
|
D |
1,066.5 |
1,166.6 |
1,268.5 |
1,390.2 |
223.6 |
30.4 |
1.67 |
|
S |
1,066.5 |
1,182.1 |
1,308.2 |
1,471.7 |
289.6 |
38.0 |
2.03 |
|
Source: Statistics Canada (2005), 2001 data retrieved from Census 2001 | |||||||
The population projections range from a low of 1,390,200 in 2017 (30.4 per cent increase
from 2001) to a high of 1,471,700 in 2017 (38.0 per cent increase from 2001). In all these
scenarios the Aboriginal identity population is projected to grow at more than double the growth
rate for the medium growth scenario of the overall population. While the Aboriginal population
is projected to grow over 30 per cent over the period (Table 9), the total population is projected
to increase 14.7 per cent from 2001 to 2017.
|
Table 10: Projections of the Aboriginal Population, Scenario B |
Working Age (15+) |
Aged 15 to 64 |
Aged 15 to 44 | |
|
Total______ | ||||
|
General Population, 2017 (thousands) |
35,538,000 |
30,057,800 |
24,070,000 |
14,023,602 |
|
Aboriginal Population, 2001 (thousands) |
1,066,500 |
715,500 |
673,000 |
514,400 |
|
Aboriginal Population, 2017 (thousands) |
1,420,000 |
1,013,900 |
921,400 |
633,000 |
|
Aboriginal as a share of total, 2017 |
4.00 |
3.37 |
3.83 |
4.51 |
|
Total Growth, 2001-2017 (%) |
33.1 |
41.7 |
36.9 |
23.1 |
|
Average Annual Growth Rate, 2001-2017 (%) |
1.81 |
2.20________ |
1.98 |
1.31 |
Source: Statistics Canada (2005a) and PUMF 2001 Census
The estimates by age groups are provided by Statistics Canada only for Scenario B. The
Aboriginal working age population in 2017 is projected to be 1,013,900, a 41.7 per cent increase
from the level in 2001, which was 715,500 individuals (Table 10). Interestingly, in 2017, the
share of the population aged 15-44 of Aboriginal Identity will represent 4.51 per cent of the
corresponding Canadian population, significantly larger than the Aboriginal share of the total
population (4.00 per cent). This is important because the 15-44 age group is encompasses
females of childbearing age. Thus, the fact that Aboriginal Canadians will represent a large
proportion of the childbearing age population in 2017 suggests that the trend in population