64
From 2001 to 2017, the 353.5 thousands persons (Scenario B) increase in the Aboriginal
population accounts for 7.7 per cent of the 4,564 thousands persons increase in the overall
population (Medium Growth - Scenario 3). This is based on a 33.1 per cent increase of the
Aboriginal population and a 14.7 per cent increase of the overall population.
But there is a fundamental difference in the natural population growth between
Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians. All the population growth of the former is due to
natural increase (births minus deaths), but well less than half of the increase of non-Aboriginal
comes from this source, with international migration being much more important. Equally, the
Aboriginal have a much higher fertility rate than non-Aboriginal and they have a greater share of
their population in the child-bearing age group.
Chart 17: Average Annual Natural Population Increase (Births - Deaths) in
Canada, by Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Population, 2001-2017
Using scenario B for the Aboriginal population growth and scenario 3 for the total
Canadian population growth, it is predicted that the Aboriginal community will be responsible
for much of Canada‘s natural population increase. These projections estimate that between 2001-
2006,26 the Aboriginal population was responsible for 19.6 per cent of Canada‘s natural
population growth, a figure projected to rise to 29.8 per cent for the 2011-2017 period (Chart
16).
26 Data for 2001-2004 was taken from currently available data (v391069 and v391084). The natural rate of
Aboriginal population growth is calculated based on projected populations and thus slightly underestimates due to
the lack of controlling for Aboriginals who emigrate from Canada.