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1.7 percentage point increase in the employment rate, from 61.1 per cent in 2001 to 62.8 per cent
in 2017.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada in 2001 was $1,038.7 billion (1997
dollars), and it grew to $1,189.8 billion in 2006. The rate of growth of GDP is projected to
increase until 2010, reaching 3.0 per cent that year, but should then gradually decrease to reach
2.2 per cent in 2017. In 2017, real GDP is projected to be at a level of $1,564.4 billion (1997
dollars), a total growth of 50.6 per cent over the 2001-2017 period or 2.59 per cent on average
each year (Table 15).
Due to projected increases in both the working age population (20.5) and the employment
rate (2.7 per cent), the level of employment is expected to increase 23.7 per cent between 2001
and 2017, from 14,946,000 persons in 2001 to 18,486,000 persons in 2017. This translates into a
projected annual average growth rate of 1.34 per cent for the 2001-2017 period.
Table 15: Institute for Policy Analysis Economic Projections to 2017
|
2001 |
2017 |
% change, |
Average | |
|
GDP (billions of chained 1997 $) |
1,038.7 |
1,564.4 |
50.6 |
2.59 |
|
Employment (in thousands) |
14,946 |
18,486 |
23.7 |
1.34 |
|
GDP per Worker (chained 1997 $) |
69,496 |
84,628 |
21.8 |
1.24 |
|
Labour Productivity per hour |
n.a. |
n.a. |
24.5 |
1.38 |
|
Average Real Wage per Worker |
n.a. |
n.a. |
25.5 |
1.43 |
Source: Dungan, Peter and Steve Murphy (2007), Tables 1b and Table 2
GDP per worker is the ratio of GDP to employment. Hence, the growth of GDP per
worker is projected to be 1.24 per cent per year over the 2001.2017, which represent the residual
GDP growth not due to increased employment. Another measure of productivity, labour
productivity per hour, is projected to grow slightly faster than GDP per worker, with an average
annual growth rate of 1.38 per cent. This implies that the projected amount of hours worked by
each worker should decrease slightly between 2001 and 2017. Finally, real wages generally
increase in line with productivity. In their projections, Dungan and Murphy (2007) project a
25.5 per cent increase in real wage per worker between 2001 and 2017, a slightly larger increase
than that of labour productivity (24.5 per cent). This slight divergence suggests that the authors
believe the share of labour in GDP in Canada will increase over the period. This is not surprising
since the share of profit in GDP in Canada were at an unusually high level in 2001. A
realignment can thus to be expected.