The name is absent

68

Under Scenario 3, it is assumed that the participation rate of Aboriginal Canadian in 2017
reaches the level non-Aboriginal Canadians had attained in 2001. For example, at the national
level, we assume that the participation rate of Aboriginals reaches 66.6 per cent by 2017.
Clearly, even this scenario is conservative since it represents a lower increase in participation
rate than would be achieve only through an increase in educational attainment.²⁷

The projections are made using Aboriginals population projection estimates (Statistics
Canada, 2005a) and projections on the total labour force growth (Dungan and Murphy, 2007)
described in the previous section.

i. National Projections

These different scenarios produce interesting results (see Appendix Tables 22 to 27 for
details). Scenario 1 projects an important increase in the Aboriginal labour force, a direct result
of Aboriginal population growth of 41.7 per cent from 2001 to 2017. This means that given no
increase in participation rate, 183,218 Aboriginal individuals are projected to join the labour
force. In this case, Aboriginal Canadians, who made up only 3.4 percent of the total population
in 2001 (Statistics Canada - Aboriginal Population Projections), would be responsible for 5.75
percent of the total increase in the size of the Canadian labour force (Table 16). Their share in
the labour force would go from 2.73 per cent in 2001 to 3.23 in 2017. This can be explained by
the fact that Aboriginal Canadians had a higher birth rate and therefore their working age
population is increasing at a faster rate than that of the non-Aboriginal population.

Table 16: Summary of Aboriginal Labour Force (15+) Projections

Scenario 3 projects that the Aboriginal labour force would increase by 235,572
individuals (53.6 per cent), from 439,317 in 2001 to 674,889 in 2017. In this scenario, the

²⁷ Under Scenario 2, the participation rate gap of Aboriginal Canadians reaches the mid-point between their level in
2001 and that of non-Aboriginal Canadians in 2001. At the national level, this scenario assumes that the
participation rate in 2017 of Aboriginals would be 64.0 per cent - the mid-point between the 2001 participation rate
for Aboriginals (61.4 per cent) and the 2001 participation rate for non-Aboriginals (66.6 per cent). A fourth scenario
can be considered. This scenario assumes that the participation rate of Aboriginal Canadian in 2017 reaches the
same level as that forecasted by Dungan and Murphy for the general population in 2017 (65.5 per cent). Parity is
achieved. These scenarios are included for projections at the national level in Appendix Tables 22 and 23. The
scenario is not investigated partly because there is a considerable degree of uncertainty associated to the forecast for
the overall participation rate in 2017. Marshall and Ferrao (2007) suggest that the labour force participation rate may
be higher than expected in 2017. Indeed, they find that older people are currently retiring at an older age than before,
and that the participation rate of the population aged 55 to 64 increased compared to 1976, with a noticeable
increase in the past ten years. This effect may counter-balance the effect on participation from the aging of the
population.

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