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In the territories, the non-Aboriginal working age population is projected to decrease by
1,630 individuals during the 2001-2017 period. In 2001, 45 per cent of the working age
population self-identified as Aboriginal (Appendix Table 22). In 2017, that proportion is
projected to increase to 56 per cent. In 2001, the participation rate of Aboriginal Canadians (63.0
per cent) was below that of the non-Aboriginal population (75.2 per cent.) Under Scenario 3, if
Aboriginal were to achieve parity with non-Aboriginals in terms of participation rate, 16,275
additional workers would join the labour force and the Aboriginal population would contribute
159 per cent to the increase in the total labour force between 2001 and 2017 in the Territories.
In Manitoba, under scenario 3, the Aboriginal contribution to the change in the labour
force between 2001 and 2017 is also significant (42.8 per cent), though not as much as that for
the Territories because Aboriginal Canadians make up a smaller proportion of the working age
population of Manitoba (11.6 per cent in 2001) than they do in the Territories (45.2 per cent in
2001).
In Quebec and Ontario the Aboriginal population has the smallest effect on the labour
force. Even if the participation rates of Aboriginals were to achieve parity with the participation
rates of the non-Aboriginal population, by 2017 the Aboriginal contribution to the percentage
change in the labour force between 2001 and 2017 would be minor (1.06 per cent in Quebec and
2.36 per cent in Ontario.) The small effect of Aboriginal Canadians in Quebec and Ontario can
be explained by the fact that they make up a small proportion of the population. By 2017 they
will make up a projected 1.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent of the labour force respectively.
B. Aboriginal Canadians and Employment
Participation rates are not the only labour market indicators in which Aboriginal
Canadians trail behind the non-Aboriginal population. In terms of employment rates, there is an
even greater gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations. Just like participation
rates, employment rates are positively affected by educational attainment. Much of the difference
in employment rates between Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals can be explained by the
educational gap between the two groups.
Following the same logic as that used for the participation rates, the potential contribution
of Aboriginals to the future number of employed individuals will be calculated under various
scenarios. The scenarios considered mirror those used for the participation rates projections.
Scenario 1 assumes no change in employment rate for Aboriginal Canadians, and Scenario 3
assumes that the employment rate of Aboriginal Canadians in 2017 will reach the 2001
employment rate level of non-Aboriginal Canadians.