70
Aboriginals would enter into the labour force. In this case, the North American Indian
contribution to the change in the size of the labour force between 2001 and 2017 would be 5.80
percent. The Inuit have the smallest effect on the size of the future Canadian labour force, 0.31
per cent if parity were to be achieved. However, considering that the Inuit make up only 0.12 per
cent of the population, this change is significant. As for the Metis, the participation rate of the
group is actually above that of the non-Aboriginal population, thus, it was just assumed that both
the participation rates of the Metis and the non-Aboriginal population would remain constant. In
this case, the Metis contribute 1.28 per cent to the change in the total Canadian labour force
between 2001 and 2017.
It is also interesting to measure the level of the national participation rate when different
scenarios are considered. Scenario 3 projects that roughly 50,000 additional persons will
participate in the labour force compared to Scenario 1, the latter representing the status quo. This
suggests that the 2017 national participation rate under Scenario 3 would be almost 0.3
percentage point higher than under Scenario 1.
ii. Provincial Projections
At the provincial level, the Aboriginal population is most important in the labour force of
Saskatchewan, the Territories and Manitoba in descending order (Appendix Tables 22 to 27). It
is consequently in these provinces that Aboriginal Canadians contribute most to labour force
growth.
In Saskatchewan, the Aboriginals are projected to make up 16.8 per cent of the working
age population by 2017. The non-Aboriginal working age population of Saskatchewan is
projected to decrease by 19,010 individuals by 2017, while the Aboriginal working age
population is projected to increase by 50,900 individuals or 60.5 per cent (Appendix Table 22).
Thus, Aboriginals will make up an increasingly important share of the working age population. If
Aboriginal Canadians were to achieve parity with the general population in terms of participation
rate levels of 2001 by 2017 (Scenario 3), their share in the Saskatchewan labour force would also
increase significantly. The percentage contribution of Aboriginals to the change in the labour
force from 2001 to 2017 would be 221 per cent if Aboriginals achieve parity with the 2001
participation rates of the general population (Table 18).
Table 18: Summary of Aboriginal Labour Force Projections, by Scenario and by Province, 2001-2017
|
Percentage Change in |
Contribution to Total Labour |
Percentage of |
Percentage of Labour | ||||
|
Scenario 1______ |
Scenario 3 |
Scenario 1 |
_____Scenario 3 |
- |
Scenario 1 |
Scenario 3 | |
|
Atlantic |
42.0 |
43.2 |
9.5 |
9.7 |
215 |
2.79 |
2.81 |
|
Quebec |
10.3 |
15.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.08 |
1.03 |
1.08 |
|
Ontario |
32.1 |
51.0 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
1.44 |
1.46 |
1.67 |
|
Manitoba |
47.6 |
71.0 |
28.6 |
42.8 |
10.13 |
12.80 |
14.84 |
|
Saskatchewan |
60.5 |
104.5 |
128.3 |
221.5 |
8.76 |
13.50 |
17.20 |
|
Alberta |
54.9 |
77.5 |
7.6 |
10.7 |
4.12 |
4.91 |
5.63 |
|
British Columbia |
27.4 |
32.2 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
3.82 |
3.76 |
3.91 |
|
Territories_________ |
49.7________ |
78.8 |
100.4 |
_______159.2 |
40.88 |
50.89 |
60.78 |
|
Canada_________ |
41.7________ |
53.6 |
5.8 |
__________7.4 |
2.73 |
3.23 |
3.50 |
Source: Appendix Tables 22 and 23