65
The Aboriginal population is estimated to have grown by 20,400 per year over the 2001-
2006 period while the general population saw natural growth of 104,199 person per year. Over
the 2011-2017 period, the average yearly Aboriginal contribution to total population growth is
projected to rise to 23,600 persons while the general population is projected to see natural growth
of only 79,300 persons per year (Chart 17). Clearly the Aboriginal population will form a
significant portion of Canada‘s population growth due to a younger age structure and higher birth
rate.
C. Projections for the Canadian Economy
Now that we have established base case scenarios for projections of both Aboriginal and
non-Aboriginal populations, we need to establish base case economic projections in line with
these population estimates. These projections will provide a benchmark against which to
measure the potential contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to the overall economy. As discussed
earlier, Dungan and Murphy (2007) from the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of
Toronto provide projections for many economic variables up to 2025. Moreover, we already
established that their population projections are in line with those of Statistics Canada used in
this report. Thus, these economic projections will be adopted as the base case scenario for this
report. In this section, we review in more detail their projections for key labour market outcome
indicators as well as for GDP, employment, and labour productivity.
Dungan and Murphy project a total population increase of 16.0 per cent between 2001
and 2017, a 0.93 per cent annual average growth rate. The working age population is projected to
increase at a slightly faster rate of 1.17 per cent per year over the 2001-2017 period, a total
increase of 20.5 per cent. Finally, the authors expect the labour force to grow only slightly
slower, at 1.13 per cent per year or 19.8 per cent over the period (Table 14). This represents an
additional 3,185,000 workers in the labour force in 2017 compared to 2001.
Table 14: Institute for Policy Analysis Population and Labour Market Outcomes
Projections to 2017
|
2001 |
2017 |
% change, |
Average | |
|
Total Population |
30,974 |
35,916 |
16.0 |
0.93 |
|
Working Age Population |
24,444 |
29,451 |
20.5 |
1.17 |
|
Labour Force |
_________16,111 |
19,296 |
19.8 |
1.13 |
|
Participation Rate |
65.9 |
65.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.04 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
7.2 |
6.2 |
-13.9 |
-0.93 |
|
Employment Rate |
__________61.1 |
62.8 |
2.7 |
0.16 |
|
Source: Dungan, Peter and Steve Murphy (2007), Tables 1b and Table 2 | ||||
Of course, with the labour force growing marginally slower than the working age
population, the participation rate is expected to fall slightly from 65.9 per cent in 2001 to 65.5
per cent in 2017. The unemployment rate is also expected to decrease, from 7.2 per cent in 2001
to 6.2 per cent in 2017. This one percentage point decrease in unemployment rate over the 2001-
2017 period is sufficient to counterbalance the small decrease in participation rate, leading to a