4.4 Conclusions on impacts
The simple conclusion to be drawn from the above discussion is that the opening of
the Channel Tunnel has had little identifiable impact on any of the sectors which
might be thought to benefit directly or indirectly from the tunnel. Whilst it always
difficult to create alternative histories of what would have happened otherwise, and it
is arguable that without the tunnel Kent would have fared much worse than the
national or regional performance given its location, it is difficult to form any view that
the local economy has befitted significantly form the tunnel. This is in line with a
number of ex-ante studies (e.g. Vickerman, 1987; Fayman et al., 1995; Spiekermann
and Wegener, 1997). What is more significant, however, is that by concentrating just
on the most accessible corridor rather than the wider Kent region we have shown that
this most favoured sub-region has also shown no overall tendency to perform better
than the wider sub-regional or regional economy. There are other more important
drivers to a region’s performance than its accessibility.
5. Future Prospects
It may be argued that 10 years is too short a time to see a major re-structuring and re-
orientation of a local economy. This is especially true to the extent that one key
element in the transport network, the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, will only be finally
completed in 2007. The key point about this is that it will provide the opportunity for
the acceleration of domestic rail services between London and Ashford and other
towns in the less developed East Kent.
5.1 Growth locations
Two areas stand out as particular growth locations linked to the Tunnel: Ashford and
Ebbsfleet. Ashford has been seen as a significant growth pole for many years. The
reasons for this are partly linked to the Channel Tunnel in that the Kent Impact Study
(1987) expected significant economic growth related both to the International
Passenger Terminal and the Cheriton Tunnel-Terminal. In line with these
expectations, large areas of land were designated for commercial, industrial and
residential development.
These plans resulted in Ashford being seen as a location for future growth even when
the Tunnel related developments failed to materialise on the scale expected.
Substantial housing development occurred between 1990 and 2002 and when central
government published plans for the expansion of housing in the South East England
Region it identified Ashford as the site for a further 43, 000 housing units by 2030.
The problem for Ashford has been that although housing developments has occurred
(and significant development of services and retailing) there has been a much slower
development of other activities and Ashford has developed its function mainly as a
dormitory town for those working in Greater London, Maidstone and other parts of
East Kent.
Ebbsfleet is a new development in North Kent based around a new international
station on the CTRL. Ebbsfleet is likely to become the most attractive place in which
to have an intermediate stop in terms of people accessing Eurostar services by road
(there are 9000 new parking spaces planned for the Ebbsfleet station. A total of 150
ha of land has been designated for associated developments and outline planning
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