the activity of such airlines has been in creating new markets which may be only
partial substitutes for traditional cross-Channel traffic.
• The impact of road congestion, especially on the main approach corridors is a
major source of concern because of the unpredictability of the delays which
constitute a major cost to truck based freight.
5.2.2 Changes in the Broader Context
• Retail price differences across the Channel due mainly to tax differences and
exchange rate changes may change with important impacts both on traffic levels
(and the direction of flow) and on local retail activity.
• The intensification of security and illegal migrant precautions could have a
significant long-term effect on short term, especially day trip, movements which
constitute a large part of cross-Channel traffic with consequences for further
integration.
• Integration of the cross-Channel housing and labour markets leading to an increase
in commuting, currently only at very low levels compared with the moves across
other intra-EU borders, could have a significant impact on both traffic levels and
regional economic integration.
• An exogenous change in Kent’s position in the UK economy could arise from the
expansion of Ashford and Kent Thameside discussed above. However, Kent is
likely to remain somewhat insulated from some of the other growth pressures on
South East England by its geographical position to the east of London.
5.2.3 Assessing the likelihood of future scenarios
In tables 3 and 4 we have summarised three possible outcomes for each of the
scenarios considered above, and assessed the likelihood of each outcome by giving
each an alternate probability between 1 and 3, where 1 = high probability, 2 =
moderate probability, and 3 = low probability.
The picture of the Tunnel and its future impact derived from tables 3 and 4, together
with the information on growth centres in section 5.1 is as follows. In the transport
context we expect some technical and managerial integration of Channel Tunnel
operations with rail operations in the UK and mainland Europe. Such integration will
be encouraged by the implementation of the EU’s railway packages. We do not
however believe that this will be underpinned by any decisive shift in policy towards
rail transport.
As regards cross-Channel ferry services, we expect there to be some operator changes,
but a continuing high level of service. Similarly we do not expect there to be any
major change in the position of Eurotunnel - expecting the banks to continue to
support it but restricting it from any major new initiatives or investments. Eurostar
will, we expect, focus on the CTRL route St Pancras- Stratford- Ebbsfleet- Ashford
and, at least in the medium term, seek to develop intermediate facilities at Ebbsfleet,
in Europe it will focus, as at present, on the three major destinations (Brussels, Paris
and Lille). All the surface operators will continue to face competition from vigorous
low-cost airline operators, for at least part of the market. We see limited prospects of
fully integrated through rail services despite the opportunities offered by St Pancras
and CTRL. Finally, we expect the issue of road traffic congestion to pose a continuing
problem for both the Channel Tunnel and other surface cross-Channel operators.
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