permission was granted in November 2002 for 790,000 sq m (8.5 million sq ft) of
mixed-use development including employment, residential (there are plans for 3,200
new homes in the area), hotel and leisure facilities, supporting retail and community
facilities together with transport infrastructure and open space. It is hoped that these
developments will generate up to 20,000 jobs. Linked to Ebbsfleet is the development
of the Eastern Quarry, a site of approximately 300 hectares with the capacity for over
7,000 new homes and 3 million square feet of office, leisure, shops and amenity
facilities. The eastern quarry development is hoped to take the form of an urban
village and is expected to generate 10,000 new jobs. The quarry is located between
Ebbsfleet and Bluewater and is the largest single Kent Thameside development site.
Kent Thameside is part of the Government's Thames Gateway regeneration strategy, a
regional and national priority region for long term sustainable economic, social and
environmental regeneration. This huge redevelopment in Kent Thameside is likely to
provide a serious competitor for developments in the Channel Corridor.
5.2 Alternative Futures
In this concluding section we examine a series of alternative influences on future
development and examine their likely consequences on both the transport sector and
on Kent from these developments. These developments are not mutually exclusive
and different combinations of them will have significantly different implications for
Kent. The developments are presented in 2 groups: developments in transport
networks and markets; and changes in the wider social, economic and political
context.
5.2.1 Future transport sector changes and their impact
• Greater technical and operational integration of tunnel services with other networks
leading to an increase in operating efficiency
• Implementation of the EU's 2nd and 3rd railway packages leading to greater
potential for through freight services, and the entry of new operators, but also
opening the tunnel to the open access regime.
• A shift in transport costs and regulation against road transport leading to a
favourable move in the competitive position of rail for both freight and passenger
services.
• Restructuring of Ferry operators from Dover - although it is an unlikely scenario
that all ferry operations out of Dover would cease, there is scope for some
restructuring of the industry although this may lead to instability in the market. This
could have negative consequences both for traffic through Kent and for
employment more generally.
• Financial restructuring of Eurotunnel leading to bankruptcy and foreclosure by the
banks as major creditors. This would lead to a new management structure, but
potentially a substantial reduction in the fixed costs due to the writing off of debt.
• Restructuring of Eurostar, due to continuing financial problems and competition
from low cost airlines. Depending on the nature of any change this could have
major impacts on the local economy.
• The impact of CTRL, especially on domestic services, has already been mentioned
in the context of the growth of Ashford, but ahs important implications for the
whole of East Kent and for potential integration across the Channel.
• Low-cost airlines have been citied as a major reason for problems of all cross-
Channel operators, but this argument needs to be treated with caution as much of
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