Ex post analysis of the regional impacts of major infrastructure: the Channel Tunnel 10 years on.

________________Issues________________

________________Possible Future Outcomes________________

Probabilities*

Technical and operational integration

A. Integration greatly increased

2

B. Some increased integration

1

C. Integration unchanged_________________________________________

3

Implementation of the EU's 2nd and
3rd railway packages

A: Objectives fully achieved

3

B: Some progress on objectives

1

C: No change_____________________________________________

2

A shift in transport costs and
regulation against road transport

A: Major shift achieved

3

B: Modest shift achieved

2

C: Little change_____________________________________________________

1

Restructuring of Ferry operators
from Dover

A: Most operators withdraw/reduce services

3

B: Some operator turnover, services stable

1

C: Ferry services stable and expanding___________________________

2

Financial restructuring of Eurotunnel

A: New operator after bankruptcy

3

B: No real change

1

C: Successful refinancing of Eurotunnel___________________________

2

Restructuring of Eurostar

A: Eurostar Expands services and intermediate stops using two
London termini

3

B: Eurostar Focuses on CTRL Route with intermediate stops
C: Eurostar Focuses on limited continental destinations with

1

minimum stops____________________________________________

2

The impact of CTRL

A: CTRL triggers integrated through services using Tunnel

2

B: CTRL track used by Eurostar and rail franchise services only

1

C: CTRL track used by Eurostar only___________________________

3

The role of the low-cost airlines

A: LCA's continue expansion including near continental
destinations

1

B: LCA's continue but with limited cross-Channel services

2

C: LCA's marginalised in all relevant markets_____________________

3

The impact of M25, M20, M2
congestion

A: Congestion from rising traffic volumes and no investment

2

B: Some investment relieves congestion

1

C: Major investment in Thames crossing and motorway capacity

3

________________Issues________________

__________________Possible Future Outcomes__________________

Probabilities*

The differences in retail prices
across the Channel

A: Major differentials persist

3

B: Some price differentials occur

1

C: Price equalisation____________________________________________________

2

The intensification of security and
illegal migrant precautions

A: High security sensitivity persists

1

B: Security concerns moderate

2

C: Security concerns cease___________________________________________

3

Integration of the cross-Channel
housing and labour markets

A: High levels of cross-Channel commuting

3

B: Modest growth in cross-Channel commuting

2

C: Cross-Channel commuting remains minimal______________________

1

A change in Kent’s position in the

A: Kent develops economic activities using locational advantage in

UK economy

relation to Europe

3

B: Kent and Thames Gateway become economic growth areas within
the SE Region

1

C: Kent economy dominated by commuting and local services_________

2