Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and On the Profitability of U.S. Oil Refinery Industry



Table 1. Regression Results for Pooled OLS, the Fixed Effect Model, and the Panel FGLS Method on Relative Gasoline Prices

Pooled OLS Regression

Fixed Effect Model with AR(1)

Panel FGLS Method

Variable

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Oil stock

3.88e-6***

8.42e-7

1.97e-6**

9.28e-7

5.71e-7***

2.19e-7

Gasoline stock

-5.03e-6***

1.11e-6

0.000010***

2.70e-6

1.03e-6**

5.24e-7

Refinery capacity

-0.000099***

0.000029

-0.00038**

0.00019

-0.00040*

8.94e-6

Utilization rate

-0.0019

0.0028

0.00095

0.0015

0.00048

0.00041

Ethanol production

-0.000095***

3.96e-6

-0.000069***

0.000012

-0.000082***

0.000012

Supply disruption

0.32***

0.11

0.20***

0.055

0.20**

0.099

Gasoline import

-0.000037***

3.89e-6

7.37e-6***

2.75e-6

6.22e-6

4.78e-6

HHI

0.00028***

0.000062

-0.00019

0.00019

-0.000037

0.000025

January

-0.030

0.054

-0.047**

0.022

0.015

0.035

February

-0.083

0.054

-0.058**

0.028

0.00061

0.046

March

0.013

0.055

-0.0079

0.031

0.031

0.053

April

0.12**

0.055

0.055

0.035

0.069

0.058

May

0.19***

0.056

0.089**

0.036

0.099*

0.060

June

0.17***

0.055

0.10***

0.037

0.10*

0.060

July

0.11**

0.055

0.046

0.036

0.020

0.059

August

0.046

0.055

0.029

0.034

-0.0084

0.056

September

-0.0077

0.054

-0.012

0.031

-0.060

0.052

October

-0.014

0.054

-0.014

0.026

-0.069

0.046

November

-0.032

0.053

-0.0063

0.019

-0.05

0.034

Constant

3.12***

0.29

3.20***

0.076

2.46***

0.12

~R2

Adjusted R2

0.6014

0.5914

ρ = 0.87

F test

9.42

*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.



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