Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and On the Profitability of U.S. Oil Refinery Industry



Table 4. Results for OLS Regression on 3:2:1 Crack Spread with Individual PADD Regional Data

Variable

PADD I

PADD II

PADD III

PADD IV

PADD V

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Oil stock

.000012

.000018

.000014

2.3e-6

4.9e-6***

1e-6

.000017

.000019

.000012*

6.2e-6

Gasoline stock

.000038***

7.8e-6

.000015*

8.7e-6

.000029***

7.9e-6

.000023***

.000058

.000025

.000021

Refinery cap.

-0.000079

0.000038

-.00017

.00050

-.00028

.00023

-.012***

.0025

-.0029***

.000082

Utilization rate

-.01**

.0055

-.031***

.0078

-.012*

.0063

-.013

.0091

-.0065

.012

Ethanol prod.

-.000051***

.000017

-.00009***

9e-6

-.000039**

.000016

-4.2e-6

.000021

-.000047***

.000016

Supply disrup.

.59**

.24

.23

.21

.10

.21

.079

.27

-.24

.32

Gasoline import

-.000065***

9.1e-6

-.000029***

.00001

-.000019**

8.8e-6

-.000023

.000015

-.000019

.000016

HHI

-.00033

.24

-.00042

.00039

-.0023***

.000078

.00033

.00056

.0016***

.00050

January

-.098

.12

-.053

.11

-.13

.090

-.19

.13

-.11

.16

February

-.023

.12

-.098

.11

-.12

.10

-.17

.14

-.025

.16

March

.16

.12

-.069

.11

.05

.085

.044

.14

.22

.16

April

.22*

.12

.16

.11

.14

.086

.34**

.14

.41**

.16

May

.17

.13

.33***

.12

.16*

.086

.46***

.14

.36**

.16

June

.11

.12

.41***

.11

.15*

.084

.59***

.15

.36**

.16

July

.16

.13

.28**

.11

.15*

.084

.62***

.16

.36**

.16

August

.25**

.12

.37***

.11

.21**

.085

.68***

.16

.38**

.16

September

.14

.12

.32***

.10

.14*

.081

.63***

.15

.40**

.16

October

.20

.12

.18*

.10

.065

.083

.53***

.14

.34**

.16

November

.01

.12

.017

.10

-.053

.081

.21

.13

.068

.15

Constant

2.10***

.81

3.76***

1.91

3.52***

1.29

7.22***

1.58

8.04***

3.07

R2

.7017

.7419

.8299

.7216

.6592

Adjusted R2

.6600

.7058

.8061

.6827

.6116

*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.

'Vi



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