Table 4. Results for OLS Regression on 3:2:1 Crack Spread with Individual PADD Regional Data
|
Variable |
PADD I |
PADD II |
PADD III |
PADD IV |
PADD V | |||||
|
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. | |
|
Oil stock |
.000012 |
.000018 |
.000014 |
2.3e-6 |
4.9e-6*** |
1e-6 |
.000017 |
.000019 |
.000012* |
6.2e-6 |
|
Gasoline stock |
.000038*** |
7.8e-6 |
.000015* |
8.7e-6 |
.000029*** |
7.9e-6 |
.000023*** |
.000058 |
.000025 |
.000021 |
|
Refinery cap. |
-0.000079 |
0.000038 |
-.00017 |
.00050 |
-.00028 |
.00023 |
-.012*** |
.0025 |
-.0029*** |
.000082 |
|
Utilization rate |
-.01** |
.0055 |
-.031*** |
.0078 |
-.012* |
.0063 |
-.013 |
.0091 |
-.0065 |
.012 |
|
Ethanol prod. |
-.000051*** |
.000017 |
-.00009*** |
9e-6 |
-.000039** |
.000016 |
-4.2e-6 |
.000021 |
-.000047*** |
.000016 |
|
Supply disrup. |
.59** |
.24 |
.23 |
.21 |
.10 |
.21 |
.079 |
.27 |
-.24 |
.32 |
|
Gasoline import |
-.000065*** |
9.1e-6 |
-.000029*** |
.00001 |
-.000019** |
8.8e-6 |
-.000023 |
.000015 |
-.000019 |
.000016 |
|
HHI |
-.00033 |
.24 |
-.00042 |
.00039 |
-.0023*** |
.000078 |
.00033 |
.00056 |
.0016*** |
.00050 |
|
January |
-.098 |
.12 |
-.053 |
.11 |
-.13 |
.090 |
-.19 |
.13 |
-.11 |
.16 |
|
February |
-.023 |
.12 |
-.098 |
.11 |
-.12 |
.10 |
-.17 |
.14 |
-.025 |
.16 |
|
March |
.16 |
.12 |
-.069 |
.11 |
.05 |
.085 |
.044 |
.14 |
.22 |
.16 |
|
April |
.22* |
.12 |
.16 |
.11 |
.14 |
.086 |
.34** |
.14 |
.41** |
.16 |
|
May |
.17 |
.13 |
.33*** |
.12 |
.16* |
.086 |
.46*** |
.14 |
.36** |
.16 |
|
June |
.11 |
.12 |
.41*** |
.11 |
.15* |
.084 |
.59*** |
.15 |
.36** |
.16 |
|
July |
.16 |
.13 |
.28** |
.11 |
.15* |
.084 |
.62*** |
.16 |
.36** |
.16 |
|
August |
.25** |
.12 |
.37*** |
.11 |
.21** |
.085 |
.68*** |
.16 |
.38** |
.16 |
|
September |
.14 |
.12 |
.32*** |
.10 |
.14* |
.081 |
.63*** |
.15 |
.40** |
.16 |
|
October |
.20 |
.12 |
.18* |
.10 |
.065 |
.083 |
.53*** |
.14 |
.34** |
.16 |
|
November |
.01 |
.12 |
.017 |
.10 |
-.053 |
.081 |
.21 |
.13 |
.068 |
.15 |
|
Constant |
2.10*** |
.81 |
3.76*** |
1.91 |
3.52*** |
1.29 |
7.22*** |
1.58 |
8.04*** |
3.07 |
|
R2 |
.7017 |
.7419 |
.8299 |
.7216 |
.6592 | |||||
|
Adjusted R2 |
.6600 |
.7058 |
.8061 |
.6827 |
.6116 | |||||
*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.
'Vi
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