Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and On the Profitability of U.S. Oil Refinery Industry



Table 3. Results for OLS Regression on Relative Gasoline Price with Individual PADD Regional Data

Variable

PADD I

PADD II

PADD III

PADD IV

PADD V

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Oil stock

.000025*

.000015

.000012***

2.11e-6

3.89e-6***

9.38e-7

-7.88e-6

.000018

2.84e-6

5.62e-6

Gasoline stock

.000031***

6.48e-6

.000011

8.16e-6

.000024***

7.36e-6

.00015***

.000055

.000029

.000019

Refinery cap.

0.0048

0.00032

.00054

.00047

-.00012

.00021

-.0062***

.0023

-.0032***

.00074

Utilization rate

0.0051

0.0046

-.012

.0073

.010*

.0056

-.010

.0086

.0037

.011

Ethanol prod.

-.000056***

.000014

-.000095***

8.45e-6

-.000059***

.000014

-.000041***

.000020

-.000056***

.000015

Supply disrup.

.47**

.20

.19

.19

.54***

.20

.23

.26

-.069

.29

Gasoline import

-.000044***

7.58e-6

-.000012

9.59e-6

-5.07e-6

8.18e-6

-.000013

.000014

-9.37e-6

.000014

HHI

-.00029*

0.00017

-.00029

.00037

.00037

-.0030

.00051

.00053

.0019***

.00046

January

-.10

.097

-.047

.10

-.0057

.0084

-.14

.13

-.067

.15

February

-.11

.098

-.11

.10

-.024

.088

-.17

.13

-.0060

.15

March

.0079

.099

-.12

.11

-.006

.079

-.063

.12

.12

.14

April

.060

.10

-.013

.10

-.0044

.080

.15

.13

.22

.14

May

.023

.11

.11

.11

.019

.080

.26*

.13

.22

.14

June

.000052

.10

.17

.11

.0097

.078

.35**

.14

.22

.14

July

.018

.10

.065

.10

-.0013

.078

.33**

.15

.16

.14

August

.072

.10

.093

.10

.017

.079

.32**

.15

.11

.15

September

-.037

.10

.053

.098

-.047

.076

.23

.14

.074

.14

October

.035

.10

-.012

.099

-.056

.077

.18

.13

.096

.14

November

-.029

.097

-.025

.096

-.052

.075

.09

.12

.046

.14

Constant

0.17***

.67

.31

1.79

.048

1.20

5.56***

1.49

8.87***

2.79

R2

.7109

.7119

.8229

.6610

.6415

Adjusted R2

.6705

.6717

.7981

.6136

.5915

*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.



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