Table 2. Regression Results for the Pooled OLS, the Fixed Effect Model, and the Panel FGLS Method on the 3:2:1 Crack Spread
|
Pooled OLS Regression |
Fixed Effect Model with AR(1) |
Panel FGLS Method | ||||
|
Variable |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
Estimate |
Std. Err. |
|
Oil stock |
4.61e-6*** |
9.53e-7 |
7.27e-7*** |
3.19e-7 |
1.7e-6 |
1.18e-6 |
|
Gasoline stock |
-4.56e-6*** |
1.26e-6 |
1.13e-6 |
7.55e-7 |
0.000011*** |
3.48e-6 |
|
Refinery capacity |
-0.000015*** |
0.000032 |
-0.000063*** |
0.000012 |
-0.00039* |
0.00022 |
|
Utilization rate |
-0.015*** |
0.00032 |
-0.000066 |
0.00073 |
-0.00087 |
0.0019 |
|
Ethanol production |
-0.000091*** |
4.49e-6 |
-0.000073*** |
0.000011 |
-0.000077*** |
0.000014 |
|
Supply disruption |
0.32*** |
0.12 |
0.23* |
0.13 |
0.13* |
0.071 |
|
Gasoline import |
-0.000062*** |
4.41e-6 |
-3.3e-6 |
6.0e-6 |
5.19e-6 |
3.53e-6 |
|
HHI |
0.00026*** |
0.000069 |
-0.000027 |
0.000036 |
0.000079 |
0.00024 |
|
January |
-0.058 |
0.06 |
0.00099 |
0.046 |
-0.075*** |
0.028 |
|
February |
-0.075 |
0.06 |
0.022 |
0.059 |
-0.036 |
0.036 |
|
March |
0.13** |
0.062 |
0.14** |
0.067 |
0.095** |
0.039 |
|
April |
0.30*** |
0.063 |
0.22*** |
0.072 |
0.18*** |
0.044 |
|
May |
0.39*** |
0.063 |
0.23*** |
0.07 |
0.19*** |
0.046 |
|
June |
0.36*** |
0.063 |
0.24*** |
0.074 |
0.20*** |
0.046 |
|
July |
0.31*** |
0.062 |
0.17** |
0.073 |
0.15*** |
0.045 |
|
August |
0.28*** |
0.062 |
0.16** |
0.07 |
0.18*** |
0.043 |
|
September |
0.23*** |
0.061 |
0.12* |
0.066 |
0.18*** |
0.039 |
|
October |
0.19*** |
0.061 |
0.099* |
0.059 |
0.18*** |
0.034 |
|
November |
0.0022 |
0.060 |
-0.03 |
0.044 |
0.02 |
0.025 |
|
Constant |
4.04*** |
0.33 |
2.06*** |
0.13 |
2.53*** |
0.10 |
|
~R2 Adjusted R2 |
0.6196 0.6101 |
ρ = 0.87 F test |
3.98 | |||
*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.