Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and On the Profitability of U.S. Oil Refinery Industry



Table 2. Regression Results for the Pooled OLS, the Fixed Effect Model, and the Panel FGLS Method on the 3:2:1 Crack Spread

Pooled OLS Regression

Fixed Effect Model with AR(1)

Panel FGLS Method

Variable

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Estimate

Std. Err.

Oil stock

4.61e-6***

9.53e-7

7.27e-7***

3.19e-7

1.7e-6

1.18e-6

Gasoline stock

-4.56e-6***

1.26e-6

1.13e-6

7.55e-7

0.000011***

3.48e-6

Refinery capacity

-0.000015***

0.000032

-0.000063***

0.000012

-0.00039*

0.00022

Utilization rate

-0.015***

0.00032

-0.000066

0.00073

-0.00087

0.0019

Ethanol production

-0.000091***

4.49e-6

-0.000073***

0.000011

-0.000077***

0.000014

Supply disruption

0.32***

0.12

0.23*

0.13

0.13*

0.071

Gasoline import

-0.000062***

4.41e-6

-3.3e-6

6.0e-6

5.19e-6

3.53e-6

HHI

0.00026***

0.000069

-0.000027

0.000036

0.000079

0.00024

January

-0.058

0.06

0.00099

0.046

-0.075***

0.028

February

-0.075

0.06

0.022

0.059

-0.036

0.036

March

0.13**

0.062

0.14**

0.067

0.095**

0.039

April

0.30***

0.063

0.22***

0.072

0.18***

0.044

May

0.39***

0.063

0.23***

0.07

0.19***

0.046

June

0.36***

0.063

0.24***

0.074

0.20***

0.046

July

0.31***

0.062

0.17**

0.073

0.15***

0.045

August

0.28***

0.062

0.16**

0.07

0.18***

0.043

September

0.23***

0.061

0.12*

0.066

0.18***

0.039

October

0.19***

0.061

0.099*

0.059

0.18***

0.034

November

0.0022

0.060

-0.03

0.044

0.02

0.025

Constant

4.04***

0.33

2.06***

0.13

2.53***

0.10

~R2

Adjusted R2

0.6196

0.6101

ρ = 0.87

F test

3.98

*** 1% significance; ** 5% significance;* 10% significance level.



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