Public Debt Management in Brazil

Table 10 - Covariances - Forecasting Regression

Cov(yi)/Var(i)	-0.536 (0.002)	Cov(iπ)/Var(i)	-0.016 (0.93)
Cov(ye)/V ar(e)	0.018 (0.38)	Cov(eπ)/Var(e)	-0.017 (0.45)
Cov(yπ)/V αr(π)	-0.042 (0.81)	Cov(eπ)/Var(π^)	-1.170 (0.45)
V ar(i)	0.012	Cov(ie)/Var(i)	-2.166 (0.19)
Var(e)	0.899	Cov(ie)/Var(e)	-0.027 (0.19)
V ar(π)	0.013	Cov(iπ)/V ar(π)	-0.014 (0.93)

Notes: P-values in parenthesis. Quarterly data. Variances are multiplied by 100.

Table 11 - Debt Composition - Forecasting Regressions

	Risk	Risk Significant	Risk Selic=0	Risk+Cost Significant	Risk+Cost Fix=Selic=0
Selic Rate	-0.72	-0.73	0	-0.42	0
Foreign Exch	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.01	0.01
Price Index	130	136	135	156	0.99
Fixed Rate	0.42 ~	0.37 ~	-0.35	-0.15 ^	0 ~~

Notes: The debt composition is derived assuming a that the 1-year ahead conditional vari-
ances are four times the 3-month ahead conditional variances.

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10. Public Debt Management in Brazil