Public Debt Management in Brazil



Table 12 - Cut-off Exchange-Rate Risk Premium
Fixed Rate for Foreign Exchange

Prob Fail

Debt ratio expected reduction

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

20%

189

23,7

31,6

474

25%

13,5

16,8

22,5

33,7

30%

9,4

11,8

15,8

23,7

35%

6,3

7,9

10,6

15,9

40%

3,8

4,8

6,4

9,6

Notes: Risk premium in percent.

Table 13 - Cut-off Term Premium
Fixed Rate for Selic Rate

Prob Fail

Debt ratio expected reduction

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

2%

4,80

6,00

8,01

12,0

3%

3,70

4,63

6,17

9,25

4%

3,04

3,81

5,07

7,61

5%

2,60

3,25

4,33

6,49

6%

2,27

2,83

3,78

5,66

Notes: Risk premium in percent.

28



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