90
Does this mean that bill-drafting is random and, as an implication, that this
project is innocuous? I do not think that. As I have empirically assessed, politicians with
immediate territorial expectations, especially at the mayoral level, strategically author
extensive amounts of local legislation. However, the question of the impact is salient
here again. Is there a positive relationship between local bill submission and electoral
success? An affirmative answer would be the last link of the causal chain of this project.
However, the task does not seem easy.
Multiple factors can affect electoral chances at multiple levels. The literature
recognizes several predictors of success in executive elections, such as the performance
of the economy (Kinder and Kiewiet 1981, 1978; Weatherford 1978; Fiorina 1978, 1981;
Wildes 1976), popularity of the current president (Peltzman, 1987; Piereson, 1975; Simon,
Ostrom, & Marra, 1991), campaigns (Petrocik 1996) and incumbent president's approval
rating (Brody and Sigelman 1983). At the subnational level, different factors have been
associated with executive electoral success, such as national economy (Gelineau and
Remmer 2006), state economic perceptions (Stein 1990, Squire and Fastnow, 1994,
Honwell and Vanderleeus 1990, Atkeson and Partin 1995, Niemi, Stanley and Vogel
1995), state tax increases Qewell and Olson 1988) and degrees of isolation from national
environments and economic performance (Chubb 1988), among others. As it can be seen,
most of these factors are exogenous to individual candidates' actions. It is necessary to
browse the literature of minority representation to see how individual-level factors such
as race (Fraga 1988, Hero 1992, Pantoja, Nicholson and Segura 2006, Barreto 2007) or
gender (Hermson, Lay and Stokes 2003, Brians 2005, Palmer and Simon 2005) affect
candidate's success. However, these personal attributes are constant across time and,
therefore, not prone for strategic manipulation. Thus, it becomes also a theoretical