The name is absent

97

8.2: Increases in the number (share) of municipality-based legislation positively affects
success in a mayoral race

8.3: Legislators that belong to the party of the outgoing governor (mayor) have higher
chances of winning a subnational executive race

8.4: The higher the share of provincial inhabitants in a district, the greater the chances of
municipal victory by a former legislator

8.5: Previous subnational executive experience negatively affects the chances of winning
the same spot

Gubernatorial Results

According to the results in Table 7.5, none of the covariates measuring bill
submission are significant here, consistent with theoretical expectations. The standard
errors largely exceed the coefficients, making it clear that substantive effects are not even
a remote possibility. In as much, consistent with hypothesis 8.3's expectations,
pertinence to the party of the outgoing governor has a positive and significant effect on
the likelihood of electoral victory. While opposing parties' candidates have an average
predicted probability of 8% of winning the race, everything else equal; incumbent party
members have 34% of chances. In relative terms, the advantage makes a governing party
candidate more than 300% more likely to win the gubernatorial spot.

Finally, also in the same line of that prescribed by the last hypothesis, previous
gubernatorial experience is strongly correlated with negative chances of winning the
race. Setting all the continuous variables to the median and simulating different
scenarios of binary covariates, the average predicted probability of winning a spot for a
legislator without previous gubernatorial experience is 35% ( ± 17%); when background

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