19
adjusts the number of municipal units by the relative weight of each one44. As it can be
read in the second column of Table 6.7, the effective number of municipalities ranges
between 2 and 35. Does it mean that provinces that are high in the rank provide more
opportunity structures? This could be arithmetically true, but it is not a mechanic
statement. Districts with multiple relevant municipalities may have strong and stable
leaderships that prevent any seat to be open across time45. The third column in Table 6.7
shows that there is no clear relationship between the number of relevant municipalities
and reelection rate. Moreover, the correlation coefficient among both is .42, so no
simplistic association can be performed. In sum, opportunity structures seem to be
highly contingent on political context, more than logically derived from the number of
districts and the distribution of population across provinces. Nonetheless, district-level
characteristics might play any role in the patterns of mayoral reelection.
Table 6.6: Rate of Reelection of Mayors -1983-2007
|
Reelected |
. Percent | |
|
No |
6z348 |
61.00 |
|
Yes |
4z058 |
39.00 |
|
Total |
10z406 |
100.00 |
44 The formula is —:-------, where p⅛ is the population share of each municipality of each province.
∑∞2
n
45 In fact, the Province of Buenos Aires, the province with the largest enm, has long-lasting leaderships in
most of its main municipalities.